please empty your brain below
Based, I suspect, on absolutely nothing other than a gut feeling about how 'nice' a shop looks (I'll bet no-one did any research into ownership, balance sheets, share prices over time, P/E ratios, company returns, involvement of outside agencies etc etc etc - and I'm no expert at all), you have 50-odd people who are prepared to participate in putting something onto the internet that I suspect many people will quote in chatting to people.
This is tabloid crap at its very worst, and I must say I'm really surprsied to see it here. And yes, I know the final paragraph sort-of hints at that, but I'm not sure that's the message that people will read.
Arrant sexist stereotyping, of course, but a grain of truth there, I suspect
[http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jdnIdB\\_rV8ZjT6m8EVDwnEQiTHkA]
If it had just been on how 'nice' a shop looks I would have nominated WHSmith, which based on my recent experiences has completely lost its way instore and is struggling to define what it's all about. But whilst I don't expect WHSmith to be around in a decade (large pension liabilities will make it difficult to be sold) I can't see it going immediately.
I didn't nominate, but FWIW I've seen two newly closed branches of Black's Leisure in different cities in the past two days. And as distasteful as it might be to over-indulge in Schadenfreude, I couldn't help but raise a sour "karma's gonna get you" smile when MFI went under. They really were SHOCKERS on the customer service front.
Nobody wants any of these stores to go under - but I don't think its talking down their chances to discuss it on a small if loving written and read web blog. I'd be the first to accuse the media of helping talk down the markets - they totally did - but a bunch of people on a web blog - I don't think so.
Lighten up - your going to need to see the funny side this year.
Hmmm, perhaps if there's any truth in this, the evidence will come soon enough, if tomorrow's red tops have headlines saying "Worst Stock Market Falls Ever After Blogger Publishes Death List!"
Followed by: "Internet Bloke Unrepentent - 'How can I help it if my readers are thick?'"
Followed (if only) by: "Darling Admits He Never Had A Clue, Resigns"
Balance sheets and P&L statements etc tell you *little* about that aspect. In the days that I used to punt a little pocket money into shares; it was exactly this approach that I used to decide whether to buy or sell shares in say Marks & Spencer, Arcadia Group etc. and I think I did OK. (By pulling out as it happens when M&S were going down the pan in the 1990s). So for what it's worth I think that "taking a look around" is the very first step in a smart investor's strategy - or a smart predictor's strategy.
Some people like to predict (and gamble) on which football teams are going to top the Premier League, or get relegated or whatever. Football teams are real companies, with real staff and real customers. I don't think it's particularly "tabloid" or immoral to predict which companies might not survive the year; especially when the reality of it is that even the broadsheets, media, analysts, journalists and so-called "intellectual" investors are doing exactly the same thing. Yes I know that doesn't make it right - it just makes it conventional and an essential aspect of the market. (I wanted to say free-market, but thought that might be too distracting.)
And so I predicted Jessops, because I *like* Jessops. I used to spend my money in Jessops. It was the first place I used to go to for advice; and I valued that advice and information and touchy-feely research. I liked that so much I bought stuff from there. But over the years I have been disappointed with Jessops, the experience has deteriorated for me and I only every go there to reminisce the good old days. And I hear others say the same thing. To me that sounds a warning bell, and if I was an investor in Jessops that would be the single biggest, most-valuable first-step in a prediction strategy. Second step: look at the balance sheet, P&L and stock-market announcements. When I last looked Jessops were funded by the bank until 2011. So I really do hope that they turn around the in-store experience and get the customer's spending again. But many shareholders in Jessops, like myself, saw the signs and pulled out. A share is currently worth around a penny (when at one time it was well over a pound), the banker owns an increasing number of them; this is all public data; published for the very reason of helping people make predictions. I think the prediction about Jessops is a fair one; and I don't think it's "tabloid" or in some way vaguely immoral to say so.
Ones that have viable alternatives that are considerably better seem most at risk like HMV/Jessops (buying online), BHS/Peacocks/Burtons (like a lot of the ones that have gone bust, I've barely ever been into one or know people who have). Blockbuster ought to be at risk too given that video stores are failing left, right and centre.
So M&S and Sainsbury's are safe on both counts. Boots is slightly less so - while there's nothing obviously wrong with its service proposition, it's a heavily indebted private equity company rather than a relatively low-debt plc.
WH Smith will have a very hard time. Stationery can be bought almost anywhere assuming you've not already helped yourself from the office stationery supplier, and books will go the way of Amazon. Magazine and Newspapers are what is keeping them afloat, as well as their airport and stations shops for impulse buys, but as our news media goes quickly online, their news distribution service is likely to get hit hard.
And as for those queues you always get in WH Smith, doesn't mean they're doing well, it's just lots of people queuing up for 10 minutes to pay for a 25p newspaper due the way they have to scan each paper and do a full till transaction, unlike most newsagents.
Oh, and would you like a bag for that newspaper?
As you'll see, I looked at Baugur, an investor that has had a lot of movement in the last year (mainly outward), and has traditionally bought into struggling retailers. And whose country isn't full of cash at the moment.
DSG has been heading for trouble for some time. As has Jessops, who seem to issue financial updates which are somewhat optimistic. B&Q and Homebase have both been linked to falling revenues, and JJB are the same.
WHSmith I don't think will go under, because it's doing well at the moment. If they hadn't recovered a few years ago, they would be gone, but they're OK for now.
I think some of them on the list are far fetched to say the least (I mean Boots?!) but it's known that some of these companies aren't in the best shape.
And you *can* tell by the look of things. How big are the promotions? What are the staffing levels like compared to a year ago? Have they shut stores recently? Have they got huge "Special Deals" outside their core market area? There's lots of ways to tell from inside the store.
Perhaps it is tabloid, but we're only surmising. If the media wanted to, they could force probably 10 of these into administration, but as widely regarded as DG is, I don't think they'll be basing their hate campaigns on him yet.
I would say that any store that seems to have lost its focus about what it actually sells will find themselves in difficulties. For this reason I would say WH Smiths, as it cannot make up its mind whether it is a stationary shop (if so Rymans is better), a booksellers (Borders, Waterstones - lots of others focus solely on books, with a larger stock range), an entertainment shop (HMV) or a newsagents (go to a newsagents instead). When shops diversify so much that their customers are confused what they actually sell (what does Homebase do again? Is it a poor man's B&Q?), then that is where the trouble lies.
And I agree about shops looking 'nice', I'm afraid. I think that is one of the first indicators in fortunes, at least to general people in the street, and they are the ones choosing where to spend their hard-earned cash after all.
I don't feel there is anything to be gained by replying in detail to each of the points raised (but I am glad to see that some people's predictions were based on an appreciation of how corporate finances work
), but I would just say one thing, not necessarily aimed only to the person who made the quote, but to everyone who made some sort of similar comment in response to what I've written:"Nobody wants any of these stores to go under - but I don't think its talking down their chances to discuss it on a small if loving written and read web blog. I'd be the first to accuse the media of helping talk down the markets - they totally did - but a bunch of people on a web blog - I don't think so."
Really?
The one thing I do know about the world of blogging is never to underestimate its presence or power.
DG has, as he mentioned a few days ago, around 3,000 readers per day (possibly more).
If, say, one in ten use any part of this post/concept, in some form, in discussion with someone else, that's 300 new people involved in conversation who've never seen the original post. Suppose each of those 300 have another conversation with just one different person, repeating just one snippet as 'fact'...
It's what pyramid selling is based on.
And let's not forget how often journos steal ideas/copy/images from bloggers.
And suppose just a few people who read this first hand, or hear of it second/third
inety-ninth hand are put off ordering something from a retailer in this list, in case it doesn't arrive because the company is taken into administration and they lose their money (S75 of the Consumer Credit Act will only cover you for purchases over £100 on a credit card), or they're not around in a year/two years/5 years to honour warranties (I'm thinking particularly of Jessops here), then business is being damaged by wild speculation, based on, in many cases, I suspect, absolutely nothing of substance.
Yes, it's a nice jolly little idea for a blog-post/blog-series, but, thought through to its conclusions, I still feel it is fundamentally flawed.
What I might say is that you are being patronizing at best - at worst I might suggest that you are interested in suppressing discussion.
Now I don't really believe either is your intention - I think you have just mistaken what you *reckon* (TM Mitchell and Webb) for the truth.
I'm going to leave it there because I deeply like and respect Mr Geezer and I don't want to lower the tone on his site.
I would say that M&S and W H Smith will carry on going, though if this had been a few years ago (when both names were in trouble), it could be a completely different story. The ride will probably be less smooth, however, for BHS, Mothercare, Jessops and JJB Sports. To be brutally honest though, did we expect Woolworths to disappear this time last year? I certainly didn't.
@Terry: A few years ago, WHSmith used to have a sort of honesty box which meant that, if you had the right change, you could buy your newspaper without queueing at the checkout. This appeared particularly in airports and railway stations. I wonder if any of their stores still have these?
Talk about trading on fear. (Though the loss of GS would scare anyone I have no idea).
My vote is for Lilliwhites (and the Sports World crew).
Even if the main company 'drops off' the individual franchisee's should be OK?
R
From this article about Wedgewood
http://business.smh.com.au/busin...90106-
7amk.html
'Administrators for childrenswear chain Adams said on Monday they would close 111 UK stores and make 850 staff redundant while administrators at Passion for Perfume said they had cut 194 jobs as they seek a buyer for the fragrance retailer.'
By way of an example: I like to think I am an influential person at my workplace on all things related to food (I know, I know), and the other day I told a load of my workplace colleagues that the Premium frikadellen at Aldi is better by miles than the ones at Lidl, and that the jar of Hellman's mayo at Iceland is cheaper than the same jar at Morrisons. Or that the part-baked ciabbata at ASDA is much tastier and cheaper than the ready-baked stuff at Marks & Spencer.
And if I had the time and inclination to do so I would publish this free-market advice on the web and shout it out from the rooftops! I don't wish anything morally bad on the good people at Lidl, Morrisons or Marks & Spencer, but I do like to think that I know good thing from the not-so-good. And I like to talk about it too. Goodness, we all do don't we?
If the power of the "network" helps *perpetuate a perception* then so be it: it is human instinct to perpetuate a perception; that is what makes markets competitive, and what stimulates innovation and progress. It's what the media does, and is what we *want* the media to do! And so it is that perpetuation of bad perceptions (as well as good) is also what stimulates progress and change. (There are entire TV shows and newspaper columns dedicated to perpetuating good and bad perceptions!)
I could state examples of many kinds of perpetuation of perception until the cows come home; e.g. adoption of orphans in developing countries by Hollywood celebrities, the way Britney Spears looks in her come-back performances, the wars on terror, the way David Cameron performed on the Today Programme etc. etc. etc.
Perpetuation of perceptions happens in every discussion place; be it newspapers, TV, talk-shows on the radio, and yes even blogs; like here at Diamond Geezer. And we'll go on to talk about them in the workplace around the water-cooler or in the pub with mates. This is conventional isn't it? It might be "wrong" if your politics is that way in inclined I agree, but then so are a load of other things to a lot of people, but they happen. And I, for one, think a lot of good can come out of them too.
And so we go back to Jessops again to demonstrate vividly this point about perpetuation of perception: The Times did a piece on Jessops in March 2007, as did The Independent at around the same time and The Telegraph and even (God help us) the Evening Standard.
Yes, the tabloids and broadsheets might be perpetuating perceptions about good and bad amongst the mass public, but we take these things for granted don't we? After all, they simply play back what we all want to hear ...
Jag - the difference between your example and this is that your recommendations were based on your personal experience and research, not just whether you liked the packets. Your 4th paragraph is something I could write a book about, so I won't start here! (but I vastly disagree with the idea that a media-led/perpetuated culture is either healthy or desirable).
Huw - one has to make people think somehow. There is so much around competing for their attention that one has to do *something* to engage them
And I stand by my initial assertion (2nd comment in this thread) that the British public is by and large ignorant of how the corporate/business world works. My job here is done
Interestingly, since this list was published yesterday, I note that Thorntons share price has fallen around 2.5\\% today whilst the FTSE as a whole has risen slightly - this in spite of broker sentiment suggesting BUY. Perhaps DG does have the Power after all? - he's the next Peston!
I'm sorry. So very, very sorry
If I'd thought for one second that a few off-hand comments on a blog-site could lead to 1200 lay-offs and the closure of nearly 30 stores, I would never have said what I said.
Ummm.
But then again, I'm not in this contest just for the taking part.
Maybe it's time to up the ante, and mention those godawful 'not just food' adverts (you'd think they'd know how to pronounce prosciutto, surely?); and how there's minimal chance of me wanting to see my partner wearing anything that I'd seen modelled by Erin O'Connor :[
On a bigger issue, it still mystifies me how they managed to sucker themselves on to BP petrol stations all over the country*, and yet STILL turn in figures that aren't exactly inspiring.
*Hmmm. All I wanted was to pay for my petrol. I didn't want a 'new retail experience' or to queue with the people who did and have assembled a week's worth of shopping. Where's the ten items or less till?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/busine...cer-jobs-
stores
Comet died December 2012
Jessops died January 2013
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