please empty your brain below
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'adding 10 to your age'??? some of us are already subtracting 10, where we think we'll still be believed
amber | 11.01.20 - 7:07 a.m. | #
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A largely disturbing set of predictions. I sincerely hope the BBC can survive, if not in its current form, at least with the same degree of global trust and independence it has at present.
Frank F | 11.01.20 - 7:11 a.m. | #
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The BBC does itself no favours.
As more people become their own media outlets, they'll be more questions both within and without the established media as to why they need to pay so much.
Established YouTubers do get offers for TV work - but many don't bother because they can't see what the advantage to them is, it's a bit like the record industry was like in the early days, when musicians signed over the rights in return for a contract - but most people are more informed nowadays.
Still Anon | 11.01.20 - 7:43 a.m. | #
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Imo the BBC has done for itself; pandering to those most likely to destroy it and antagonising those most likely to defend it. Making "mistakes" that only ever bias in one direction.
I suppose the last two predictions could be summed up as "will you still read me, when I'm 64?" I hope so - here's to many more years of this blog.
Ian | 11.01.20 - 7:43 a.m. | #
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The BBC's "mistakes" bias in both directions, but it's much harder to perceive bias you agree with.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 11.01.20 - 7:49 a.m. | #
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Regardless of what may come, I still think some of us will prefer & defend the written long form. Looking forward to your thoughts/opinions in the next decade DG [and the old school formatting, as long as it can stick!]
LA bb | 11.01.20 - 8:25 a.m. | #
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Dear DG, I'd like to think that 'nobody reads those 500 words... grandpa' is partly attributable to me and only you know why ;)
A nice dose of dystopian future for my morning read... cheers
PJS | 11.01.20 - 9:19 a.m. | #
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Have you got a plan for what to do if Google decide to shutter or modify Blogger, DG? It would be devastating if anything were to happen to your blog.
James | 11.01.20 - 9:43 a.m. | #
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I was involved in the house-buying and house-selling process for the first time in 30 years last year, and I was astonished at how little it had changed. There were emails and attachments, but still letters and phone calls, and the process - irrespective of how it was communicated - was instantly recognisable. Rightmove and Zoopla were a thin skin on top.
The situation was the same with complex (private) dentistry - almost everything was arranged through phone calls and screeds of paper.
Ephemeral/trivial communication may change, but that which actually matters probably won't. Digital signatures, for example, were nowhere to be seen in the property process, and at one point I had to meet someone to sign and witness physical documents, which could only be done on a weekend because those involved were 200 miles apart. Digitisation of that would have been a huge time saver, but it wasn't on offer.
Alastair Scott | 11.01.20 - 9:49 a.m. | #
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got to fight my way thru/out of the grief, debt, depression, homelessness & aniexty the next 120 months.
that a lot to ask! lets take it a day at a time. and all the best to all.
Grumpy Anon, January 2020.
Grumpy Anon | 11.01.20 - 10:30 a.m. | #
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I'm fortunate that being involved in various voluntary organisations I see people 20 or more years older than my nearly-60 and so definitely "elderly" living worthwhile lives. Not guaranteed of course, but still gives me hope.
Andrew S | 11.01.20 - 10:43 a.m. | #
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>got to fight my way thru/out of the >grief, debt, depression, homelessness >& aniexty the next 120 months.
As one Anon to another, good luck! I went through a personal crisis in 2018/2019 (massive bullying/sexual harassment case) and came out (in al senses) stronger, happier and fitter than ever.
Hope you find the nerve to play your role in society, find happiness, and not lose courage, even if you may have self-doubts..”
new still anon | 11.01.20 - 10:53 a.m. | #
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Whatever the 2020s bring I just hope we collectively come through it more compassionate/tolerant as a society/world and with a strong vision on how we can sustain our existence for the decades following, because right now the future looks rather scary - your blog being the one bright spot!
Cornish Cockney | 11.01.20 - 11:14 a.m. | #
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If the BBC goes, I'll ditch the telly. I'd be happy to pay a premium for an alternative that spared all the ads, but at the moment, you pay higher subscription fees for getting even more ads, which is insane.
The trends behind the predictions are generally well set, but I think two of them could go either way, including to some dark places - 'progressive/liberalism' vs. 'reactionary/conservatism' (whether in world politics or the school playground) and whether the rate of pollution increase will be sufficiently dented to limit the predicted environmental and geopolitical consequences in succeeding decades.
On digitalisation, I predict that this decade will include an event in which some mishap, whether by mistake or malicious, will cause such severe disruption that we'll wonder how we came to be so reliant on tech giants that get us to agree to conditions that they are lot liable for what we might loose. Utilities have a duty to reconnect us when something goes wrong. Tech companies very often don't.
As for adding ten years, I'll be due to retire. Or will I?....
NickW | 11.01.20 - 12:15 p.m. | #
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Don't ever change the overarching blog design DG. This is one of the few sites that still works with my preferred browser (Opera 12).
John | 11.01.20 - 12:58 p.m. | #
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The BBC doesn't need to go all "Faragey" BUT it does need to understand that an awful lot of people, especially those outside of the big cities don't agree totally with the "liberal consensus", as shown by the Brexit vote and general election.
Unless the BBC manages to represent these people better, to me it's doomed to extinction.
Mikey C | 11.01.20 - 1:24 p.m. | #
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None of my 30-something kids watch terrestrial TV so they couldn't be bothered less about whether the BBC survives or not. I'd be devastated but then, who cares what a 70-80 year old wants.
Caz | 11.01.20 - 2:52 p.m. | #
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The BBC is already collaborating with internet media providers like Amazon and HBO to make shows, so it's not a far stretch to assume they'll continue to do so and manage to find a way around the licensing fee issue, among other things.
I'm more concerned about the dissolution and privatisation of the NHS, which has already started happening.
.dot | 11.01.20 - 5:48 p.m. | #
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I agree with your concerns about the BBC and completely agree with Mikey C’s comments that it does itself no favours by its current behaviour.
It is far too metropolitan in its outlook and culture, largely ignoring those who live in the non-urban periphery.
It is in a bind though given the Ofcom edict to chase the young at the expense of the old. Here it risks alienating its current viewers to attract newer ones. Like turning your favourite restaurant into a burger bar to “attract the kids”, but leaving your traditional customers feeling marginalised and unvalued.
The irony is that as a broadcaster, the BBC really needs to learn to listen more.
IanD | 11.01.20 - 8:13 p.m. | #
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I think the big change in the 2020's will be AI. By the time we get to 2030 vast numbers of us will be doing jobs aided by AI. The robots won't have replaced us but AI will be making decisions for us.
ap | 11.01.20 - 11:53 p.m. | #
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Thank you for a set of fascinating and thought-provoking posts DG.
One subject that does concern me as I enter my eighth decade, is Climate Change.
Whilst there might not be any mega incidents affecting the UK, though as we know, major storms and flooding can affect our corner of the world, major pressures across the planet and the relationship between the adherents of the “We Must Act Now” school of thought versus those who follow the “Live Now, Pay Later” approach, will play an increasingly important and potentially divisive role, both socially and politically in the years to come.
How the UK actually addresses in practice its "zero-carbon" ideals in the next decade will present interesting challenges and changes for us all.
IanD | 12.01.20 - 8:01 a.m. | #
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I watched the BBC twice last year: The Eurovision Song Contest and the General Election. For £155 that’s pretty poor value for money.
Tintinhaddock | 12.01.20 - 5:06 p.m. | #
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@ap - you may be right about AI, but I first heard that said in the 1960s by Robin Popplestone (see Wikipedia).
Peter CS | 14.01.20 - 1:14 p.m. | #
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