please empty your brain below
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(ideally, use one of the five comments boxes in the table)
diamond geezer | Homepage | 23.06.20 - 7:00 a.m. | #
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I just want to cuddle my Grandkids without giving them the virus (or getting it from them). The day we decide to do that will not be governed by any government diktat.
Richard | 23.06.20 - 7:19 a.m. | #
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It's particularly hard for pubs and buses, where it's difficult to maintain an arbitrary distance, whether it's 2 metre or 1m.
Will the Prime Minister announce that, like buses, people can visit pubs, but only if they wear a mask ?
We might need to adopt a rather different style of drinking, however. Beer through a straw, anyone ?
Petras409 | 23.06.20 - 8:26 a.m. | #
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That grid is not the optimal layout for fitting people in. You would want to offset each row a little and they can be closer together then, because the requirement is a 2m radius circle not a 2m square.
Wolf | 23.06.20 - 8:32 a.m. | #
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My experience in Germany is that considerable 'unlocking' - opening all shops, restuarants, allowing touristic overnight stays has had very little effect on the spread of the virus.
The spikes in infection rates have been entirely due to mass outbreaks in individual workplaces and housing blocks, which can be dealt with using local lockdowns.
The remaining insoluble problem is holding large events with anything like the normal number of attendees.
There are those in Germany who bemoan the reopening of restaurants, and sieze on any uptick in the R number as a reason to stay in full lockdown indefinitely, but I don't think this as widespread as in the UK.
Jonathabn | 23.06.20 - 8:43 a.m. | #
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Unlock too fast and more (mostly old and vulnerable) people die in the short term and have political unrest.
Unlock too slowly and many more (mostly young and middle aged) die in the medium to long term and the economy tanks and have delayed political unrest.
Tony | 23.06.20 - 9:14 a.m. | #
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Excellent write up of the pros and cons of each strategy, DG. There is also a video on YouTube that has some further insight on how we perceive risk.
Also - I’ve noticed a number of pubs etc in and around Central London are taking advantage of the weather and guidelines, offering take away beer.
Sam | 23.06.20 - 9:27 a.m. | #
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At a pub near our allotment I have noticed a number of large (ish) white males have taken regularly to sitting on benches outside and consuming cans they have bought elsewhere. That are not socially distancing, and they don't seem to be too concerned about any action from the police. The local police station used to be about two hundred metres away, but was closed due to Tory austerity. I suspect that lots of people are approaching the 'I don't give a f***' stage.
Brian | 23.06.20 - 9:38 a.m. | #
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The elephant in the room I think is that using a metric meaurement really does not feel intuitive to all of us, even now. And especially after 3 months of the "2-metre" message - a mere metre appears literally "next-to-nothing"...
Cau1khead | 23.06.20 - 10:22 a.m. | #
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The comments system today is playing its part by ensuring we stay in our (filter) bubbles!
Alan R | 23.06.20 - 10:33 a.m. | #
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Some commenters have been saying that people generally haven’t been observing the two metre rule for some weeks now. Therefore, the fact that infections are nevertheless continuing to fall surely proves that two metres isn’t necessary...
dg writes: Never risk a 'surely'.
Baldassaro | 23.06.20 - 10:35 a.m. | #
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First Bus have done some tests on the effect of changing social distancing on a double decker from 2 metres down to 1 metre.
If there is currently a 20 person maximum that would go up to 21.
It was evidence before the Commons Transport Select Committee.
ap | 23.06.20 - 11:29 a.m. | #
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What's depressing is that our economy now appears to rely on us rushing out and buying 'non-essential' things and cramming shoulder to shoulder in a pub to buy a drink. Restaurants and cafes might be OK, but a pub must the last place (except for maybe a night club) where any kind of safe-spacing can be sustained. Interesting, though, that in parts of Australia some big infection spikes are being tracked back to large family gatherings in private homes.
ActonMan | 23.06.20 - 12:14 p.m. | #
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I don't know if you keep such data but it'd be interesting to see if the commenters in each of the 5 categories fall into similar age groups!
Cornish Cockney | 23.06.20 - 12:18 p.m. | #
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The evidence is that 0m → 1m reduces the risk of infection by 80%, and 1m → 2m reduces the risk by perhaps another factor of two.
It seems to me that 1m → 2m (with no other intervention) should reduce the density of virus particles that one person might be exposed to by a factor of 4 (if it goes like the surface area of a sphere, r^2) or 8 (if it is more like the volume of a sphere, r^3).
Cramming four times the number of infected people into the same space could increase the risk by a factor of 16 (or 32). They won't all have it though, unless they are all confined together for a period for some reason and infect each other. Avoid the halls of residence and the staff canteen.
We've had 60,000 excess deaths in three months, but today prevalence seems pretty low, so the risk of infection (and severe adverse consequences) remains low. We know there are going to be excess deaths in the future from people whose heart or cancer treatments have been delayed. There is a horrible balance to be struck - chances of deaths now, chances of deaths later.
Second peak in the autumn, after schools reopen fully and universities restart, and everyone gets back to work and starts commuting again? Meanwhile I'm staying at home as long as I can work from home and still avoiding going out as much as possible.
Andrew | 23.06.20 - 1:35 p.m. | #
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There seems to be no consistent message on How do we catch the virus? Everybody now accepts hand sanitising, but Why do we need to do it? That's not directly to do with airborne virus particles (unless someone spit/coughs on you), it's touching a virus-laden surface then rubbing one's eyes or nose with dirty fingers. So for this case, social distancing is irrelevant.
Therefore in a train or bus, hanging onto a bar, or pushing buttons/using touchscreens is just as, if not more likely to transmit any sort of infection than airborne virus.
NickK | 23.06.20 - 1:50 p.m. | #
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"Our principle is to trust the British public to use their common sense in the full knowledge of the risks, remembering that the more we open up, the more vigilant we will need to be."
(PM's statement, 23rd June)
diamond geezer | Homepage | 23.06.20 - 1:53 p.m. | #
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The key thing I haven't seen so far is whether toilets will be open - the public ones, those in shops / restaurants etc. We take for granted that we can 'go' when we go out; suddenly needing to, finding you can't is one heck of an accident waiting to happen, especially for older and disabled folk.
I'm not travelling wide-field until I know that loos are working and available! But my 'holiday' planning continues...
Joel | 23.06.20 - 2:07 p.m. | #
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The website lockdownloo.com has helpful locations across the UK for where you might be able to travel.
There are some notable gaps in inner London, where you could be up to a mile from an open WC.
TomH | Homepage | 23.06.20 - 2:26 p.m. | #
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Cornish Cockney - I damn well hope DG doesn’t keep such data! (Although I agree that it would be interesting in this case).
Baldassaro | 23.06.20 - 2:54 p.m. | #
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One wonders when the government will get things right during this pandemic. They've made so many errors of judgement that it's hard for people to have any confidence in their decisions any more. As Richard in the first comment suggests, he'd rather make his own decisions as to what is safe rather than the Government to do it on his behalf.
Eventually the Government might get something right. Even a stopped clock gives the correct time twice a day.
Richard | 23.06.20 - 3:37 p.m. | #
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A very timely piece, as I spent an hour queuing in the baking sun to take a test today. Despite most households in central London not having access to a car, it was difficult to book a test site that I could walk to rather than drive - and even then, with a timed appointment, I had an hour to wait. If it wasn't for the detail that I believe getting tested was the "right thing to do" I'd have given up in disgust and walked out.
IslandDweller | 23.06.20 - 4:16 p.m. | #
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Appreciating the many thoughtful comments on today’s blog. I follow @devisridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh Uni, who advocates a zero coronavirus Britain with a robust test, track & isolate policy with the aim of avoiding a 2nd wave & 2nd lockdown.
But I agree that it’s hard to evaluate the damage caused by lockdown compared to the extra deaths caused by lifting lockdown. I wish I were a lot wiser & more prescient!
Toni | 23.06.20 - 5:52 p.m. | #
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A key thing which has been an issue is being uncertain about WC facilities when out and about. This looks really useful
www.lockdownloo.com
NickW | Homepage | 23.06.20 - 9:07 p.m. | #
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On the LockdownLoo map in Cornwall, what looks like an available toilet at Flushing turns out, on greater magnification, to be Sainsburys in Falmouth.
What a shame !
Petras409 | 23.06.20 - 10:37 p.m. | #
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Love the image of no flushing in Flushing!
Re loos: has anyone else noticed a huge increase in used toilet paper scattered around parks and out of the way areas?
Wonder if it's linked to a lack of access to public loos, especially among the homeless.
Cornish Cockney | 24.06.20 - 11:16 a.m. | #
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