please empty your brain below
And demographics will work their way in Northerin Ireland - reunification cannot be more than a few decades away.
Cameron has left May with the intractable problem of leaving the European Union while keeping the United Kingdom together.
It was never going to end well but what a sorry circus this has turned out to be!
Full disclosure - I studied economics and live in zone 2 - so my opinion possibly should be discounted on the basis its both 'expert', and metropolitan elite.
That said - I think we're all hopelessly underestimating how :( that :( will be looking. Unless we score an unbelievable deal with the EU (difficult, as they have the stronger hand, but genuine fingers crossed for May) we will still have to accept EEA rules so comparatively little will change (but we no longer have a say about the rules). Even that's far sub optimal - but its the best we can possibly hope for now. And these trade deals matter, really significantly matter to everybody's lives (unemployment, consumer wealth, inflation etc etc).
Again, I don't claim to be representative of society, just a small group of largely middle class British Londoners in their late 20s - but the impacts of this are real. Of my friends:
- One made redundant almost immediately
- One pulled out of buying a house, just before exchange due to lack of confidence
- Four have searched through family history and are now in the process of claiming second passports so they have an emergency escape (Italy and Ireland seem the easiest bet incidentally)
- Six actively fearing for their jobs and have been told redundancies are on their way
- One who works for the big 4 as a consultant, suddenly massively overworked creating redundancy plans for her clients
- Two have taken up language courses as an out (French and German)
- Two (including myself) are hoping to stay ahead of the curve and are moving (and taking my business) to Germany next week. I have loved my five years in London, and have had the best years of my life here, but I am not confident its a good place to spend my future anymore. I get that sounds melodramatic (and its fair to say Brexit wasn't the only push), but as I said above - I think we're hopelessly underestimating how :( that :( will look in 10 years. I'll still be checking in on DG daily from Germany though :)
No one has yet explained to me how we secure full access to the EU internal market without accepting free movement of persons, and a financial contribution. Essentially, we are asking for something that no other country has got. If we get it, I can see several other EU states insisting on the same deal, and the EU would collapse. Russia would rub its hands with glee (and those in the Baltic state would look back nervously to the east).
I look forward with great interest to seeing more details of the UK's negotiating position for Brexit.
As for Sams comments. I know 3 people who are applying for second passports.
Also my next door neighbors, a young family, tell me they are considering emigrating, mainly for the sake of their children as they see no future for them in the UK anymore.
But also one that cares about people who are genuinely disadvantaged because of illness, handicap, limited abilities etc. One that's economically 'dry' but socially a bit 'wet' I suppose. The original UKIP under Prof. Alan Sked was a bit like that, but it was soon hijacked into something else.
Sadly any right of centre party always seems to have a nasty underbelly that's homophobic, bigoted, intolerant, loves bloodsports, religious etc. The sunny lush green grass seems inviting at first, but it soon turns out to be a quicksand underneath.
I just feel politically homeless.
DG, don't ever change. Your daily posts are absolutely fascinating, no matter whether they're ultra-local (bus stop tiles) or musings about life, the universe and everything. The acerbic wit sharpens thing up like a dash of vinegar and there's always food for thought. Sometimes provocative, sometimes holding faceless bureaucrats to account. Sometimes full fat, sometimes pithy and short. But always a Must Read.
How you find the time to provide such a varied diet is beyond me, but please keep up the good work. Forever !
And of course I love talking like a madman.
On the other hand, some Remain supporters (including myself), even if unhappy, might be feeling slightly less unhappy (or at least relieved) that none of the above list (let alone Farage) is going to be allowed anywhere near the levers of power. And that some of the more apocalyptic economic forecasts are not coming true (or at least, not yet...).
Well, that was a enlightening and refreshingly honest comment from a certain viewpoint.
It a shame there is no counter viewpoint from someone who is 'under-educated', working-class and in zone 2.
They to have a lot to lose I guess... though perhaps already lost quite a bit though various other reasons. They may have already been through more than their fair share of 'job loses'. They don't (and most likely never will) have the 'concern' of buying a home.
And, here the 'real-deal'...they very unlikely to be able to 'run-away' to another country because things are not going quite their way...or change a passport (that they may not even have to start with).
Yet given all that, some (not all) still think we better-off out than in. They think it so-bad now that it at least won't get any worse, perhaps there may even be a very slight improvement.
So I bid you good luck 'staying ahead of the curve'...I perhaps being in your shoes most likely do the same. The 'all-in-it-together' is sounding rather lame now anyhow.
I very rarely comment at DG (or indeed anywhere else) so it's nice to get engagement.
On re-reading my comment I worry my statement 'expert' came across a bit twatish, it was meant as a slightly ham fisted poke at Gove's 'had enough of experts' comment.
Agree entirely with what you say though on being 'in it together'. If it was ever believed by those in charge, it was only through a lack commonality of understanding with the vast majority of the electorate's situation.
I grew up outside of London and went to a pretty rubbish school where prospects weren't good. It's also in an area which voted for Brexit. I was back there to see friends at the weekend and struck by how strongly friend's parents felt Brexit was going to improve their lives. Multiple comments about how the NHS would be so much better funded or there would be more school places now. There's high unemployment in the area and little hope at the moment. Its these people who have endured the full impact of austerity since the 08 crash in a way I just don't see in London. It'll be the same people again who are hit hardest when the cuts come again (and make no mistake Osborne's comments on the 4th July about cuts to corporation tax mean this is direction of travel for the government) and the economy more generally struggles.
I've been pretty active in the UK (volunteering, campaigning etc) so take slight issue with the suggestion I am 'running away'. To be blunt, I feel more an EU citizen than a British citizen. Instead of running away I feel I am reluctantly 'returning home' (albeit to a country I've only been to a handful of times).
I could write about this for hours, but don't wish to fall further down DG's Comment Value Hierarchy. Thanks for your good luck! I'll be watching with great interest (and huge fingers crossed I am absolutely wrong about everything) from across the sea :)
Once the worst is over, I give it 10 years to recover economically and socially, but we will still have lost the valuable and unquantifiable freedoms that EU passports give. We won't miss it until it's gone.
As far as I can see, the only upsides will be a much needed major correction in house prices, better policy on agriculture and fisheries (if they have the wit to get it right) and more equalised prospects for immigrants coming from the rest of the world.
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