please empty your brain below
This statistical analysis disagreed with St Swithun.

Dan | 25.08.22 - 7:13 a.m. | #

I'm impressed that the deluge currently hitting London waited until just after the St Swithin's Day period had passed.

Here in Bow we've had more rain in the last seven hours than during the entire last 40 days.

diamond geezer | Homepage | 25.08.22 - 7:35 a.m. | #

The prediction was presumably about the weather in Winchester, not Bow. Has anyone kept records there, I wonder.

And in 971 we were still on the Julian calendar - 15th July (OS) is 28th July NS

Timbo | 25.08.22 - 9:25 a.m. | #

This was prior to the industrial revolution when the population of England and Scotland was approx 1.5m, so you can't compare climate conditions between then and now anyway.

Still Anon | 25.08.22 - 9:52 a.m. | #

If St Swithin is responsible for the recent drought, does that mean we can sue the Diocese of Winchester for compensation?

solar penguin | 25.08.22 - 9:54 a.m. | #

Remembering the heatwave and drought of 2018 I was surprised to see that there were so many wet days - until I remembered the heatwave ended pretty much as soon as the schools broke up!

Which is how I tend to view the summer - nice June/July, changeable August, with an Indian summer arriving just after they've all gone back in September!

Cornish Cockney | 25.08.22 - 11:40 a.m. | #

"The St Swithin's Day rhyme has never been true."

Shocking. I'm amazed.

David | 25.08.22 - 11:57 a.m. | #

You leave us on tenterhooks at 9am thinking that there is no more data, then we find at 11am that there is more data. Shouldn't be surprised at the latter really though!

Colly | 25.08.22 - 12:10 p.m. | #

It appears something has gone awry with:
"1981 was also very wrong - July 15th was dry but most of the subsequent days were wet."
Not what the table says.

dg writes: fixed thanks.

Andrew | 25.08.22 - 12:42 p.m. | #

Sadly, being consistently false isn't very helpful here. Knowing that at least one day in forty it won't rain and at least one day in forty it will rain is not very helpful.

This is unlike some other failed predictions. For example, someone who consistently gets wrong which horse will win a race means you know not to bet on the horse that they tip.

There are even some funds that mockingly invest the opposite of what an unreliable investment pundit recommends.

Pedantic of Purley | 25.08.22 - 12:58 p.m. | #

A useful London data source to explore in more detail (e.g. amount of rain per day) is
nw3weather.co.uk

A privately owned sophisticated automated weather station located on the roof of a house that backs directly on to the south side of Hampstead Heath.

dg writes: A website I have mentioned on at least 29 previous occasions.

MilesT | 25.08.22 - 2:01 p.m. | #

I liked the plot twist at each instalment.

Greg S | 25.08.22 - 4:06 p.m. | #

Though in time of drought
saints pray in vain,
a hosepipe ban no doubt
brings instant rain.

Rich G | Homepage | 25.08.22 - 6:13 p.m. | #

Meanwhile up where I live there has been a few drops + a brief overnight drizzle during the 40 days; until today when it rained from dawn to noon

Nigel | 25.08.22 - 11:00 p.m. | #

It's 100% accurate here in California. It never rains on July 15th and never rains in August. In fact if rains at all between mid-May and mid-October it's front page news. I'm not talking about a little drizzle from the coastal fog- that doesn't count as rain.

Miles Archer | 26.08.22 - 11:07 p.m. | #











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