please empty your brain below

I suspect the curtailing of the 25 would make the Central and District overcrowded instead as passengers inner than Stratford would have no other viable choice -- Crossrail simply skips that section.
Ah, the 25. I still miss the bendy buses.
Thanks for the summary - I'll have to have a good look later at whether any of these actually affect me.

Is there any obvious logic to how they've chosen the new route numbers? I saw the 497, and thought perhaps it might have been related to the 97, to get people to Stratford - but it turns out it's nowhere near.

dg writes: The Harold Hill area is already served by routes 496, 498 and 499, hence 497 is a fine choice.
the extension to the 241 had been proposed before, in a consultation in 2012. More people expressed 'no opinion' than supported it - I wonder whether there'll be any more enthusiasm now.
A moot point about some of the changes not being about Crossrail but about serving new housing developments. Quite possibly those new housing developments are only there because of Crossrail. So, indirectly, it is about Crossrail.
As usual with these things I end up getting shafted again.
I'm just going out to get the 180 to Greenwich which I won't be able to do if these proposals go through.
Er, make that 'when' the proposals go through.
Thank you for winding me up early on a Sunday morning DG!!
TfL do like to have a related route number - or a nod to history, the 104/304 pairing is obvious.

306 - all the x66 numbers are already in use, the 306 is the lowest xx6 number available, and also links as a 3xx number when replacing the 391.

The 301 shadows the B11 and part of the 401 at the Bexleyheath end, although it could have been numbered 311 - but then is it sufficiently visually different from B11?

Historically the 278 follows much of the old 98, and parallels most of school route 698, but again all the x98 numbers are all taken, the 278 is the nearest free number ending in 8.

As for the 218, the 416, 426, 446, 456 and 486 are available, but the 218 also covers part of the 440, but historically there was an 18A (http://www.londonbuses.co.uk/routes/018a.html) which served Acton, I suppose the temptation was too much.

497 - there's already a 498 and a 499 in the area.
I suppose a lot of this will depend on how expensive Crossrail is. Given that bus users are generally more cost-conscious (they are opting for a worse service vs. taxi or tube for a lower price), the substitution effects may be limited if Crossrail is priced closer to rail than tube fare.

Do we know what the Crossrail prices are going to be?

The Elizabeth Line service will be attractive because it is accessible, air-conditioned and will have main-line sized trains removing three reasons for people to take the bus rather than the tube. That is before quicker journeys, new interchange possibilities and new entrance/exits are factored in.
The effects could be even more than those modelled, we'll have to wait an see. As DG says lots more changes to come.
What is interesting for me is that Harrow Bus Station is now full, and any new bus routes to Harrow will require a cut from another bus route.

dg writes: The 223 is being kicked out so that the X140 can move in.
Ooh, limited stop buses (well one).

Dan, ooh bendy buses. Seemed to make a lot of sense (especially the fast boarding).
I will have the choice of getting a 252/365 to Romford or the District Line to Whitechapel. Oh joy.
@pennypacker

Re Crossrail fares.

Interestingly it would appear the mayor and Tfl have been rather silent on this. The assumption is that the existing zonal fares system as used on London Overground will apply. However, as recent reports have shown there are clear issues about the cost of services to Heathrow.

Some users of the temporary Tfl Rail have certainly seen their fares cut. I wonder though if Tfl will be able to afford to introduce the Tube / Overground £1.50 flat off peak fare for journeys outside Zone 1 on Crossrail?

I agree the 25 curtailment in 'Midtown' is a step too far given the large numbers of pax travelling from Oxford Street and Tottenham Ct Rd to Bank, Aldgate and beyond (the 242 has already been cut back to St Paul's, has it not (?) and the 8 doesn't really serve TCR Stn any more...
"Many's the night I've waited on Oxford Street for a 25 home, but no more..."

Now that you no longer work in that area probably less of an issue for you.

dg writes: I meant 'night' as in early hours of the morning :)
Where did all those bendy buses go. Round the bend of no return?
E10 going double-deck?! Thought it was only going to get longer (10.9m) single decks to replace the short (8.9m) ones currently on the route.

dg writes: Dead right. Updated, thanks.
I think that, whatever has been said or not been said, Elizabeth Line fares will be exactly the same as tube fares within fare zones 1 to 5. Heathrow is already a special case, because it already costs a different amount depending on which line you use, so there is room for "discussion" on those fares. Similarly where the line pokes out into "special fares apply", or falls right off the tube map onto the carpet, then that is an argument for another day.

But shifts from an all-bus journey to one involving Crossrail will be quite unusual. The major shift will be from a bus+tube journey to a bus+Crossrail one - not necessarily changing at the same station. These will be quite numerous, I suspect, and form some of the basis for these changes.

Malcolm. Journeys may change quite substantially: my present to LHR is 300 bus, DLR, Jubilee, Bakerloo, Heathrow Xpress (hate piccadilly). So I tend to use LCY and change in Germany for a more relaxed experience.
New journey will be 300 from a different stop on reroute then Crossrail, with probably one same platform change.
It will also open up employment opportunities for people in east London whose journey will be reduced from 90-120 mins to an hour or so.
Is route 278 the most travelled in London:
Late 1980s Stratford to Limehouse
Late 1990s somewhere round Bromley?
Late 2010s Ruislip to Heathrow has a go!
Scrumpy: Yes indeed, your plans are the sort of thing I had in mind when I referred to changing from bus+tube to bus+crossrail. Changes of this kind seem to be the main reason why bus routes will change in response to Crossrail opening.
@ Malcolm - TfL Rail and West Anglia fares are already on a different fares scale to the Tube/DLR/original Overground. I cannot see that changing one jot because of the obligations placed on TfL via the Crossrail Agreement.
PC: I expect you are right. Romford to Liverpool Street and Upminster to Tower Hill (both zone 6 to 1) seem to be the same fare in the single fare finder. But I realise there are many other ramifications to such a question, and I have doubtless forgotten about one of them (daily and weekly caps being just one such complication). The whole issue tends to make my brain hurt.
TfL's 'consultation' ignores people who need to travel to places BETWEEN stations. TfL is burying cuts in these changes (ta, DG) and selecting route changes for least cost to operate.

TfL 'consultations' only count 'for' vs 'against' and ignore the quality of argument. I don't see great benefit for people with mobility restrictions. Changing buses with a Hopper or Freedom Pass may not cost money. Maybe not but it adds time, and might cost if that's now a third bus for fare-payers (or beyond the hour from first boarding), as well as having to cross roads to continue or walk to non-adjacent bus stops.

Cynical, you bet.

Former inmate of London Buses
@scrumpy
What about the 82

until 1968: Rotherhithe Tunnel
1970-1982: Hounslow circular via Heathrow Cargo Tunnel
1986-2017: Victoria - Finchley

Ian Armstrong's bus route history website lists nine route numbers which have been used four times, and four routes (201, 211, 239, 254) with five incarnations, but the winner is Route 255:
1960-1972 Acton - Clapham Junction
1979-1982 Loughton - Woodford
1983-1985 Hackney - Chingford
1986-1987 Harlesden - Shepherds Bush
1980-1996 Croydon - Beddington
1990-present Balham - Pollards Hill
@drD Not sure what happened to all of the bendy buses but I know the ones owned by Arriva were shipped to Malta to operate there. They were similarly unpopular there and prone to catching fire. I believe the authorities there changed the law over the maximum length of vehicles that was permitted to stop them being used any longer. Arriva no longer have any involvement in operating buses there.
Several issues with this.

1. As DG highlights there are details that are only buried away in the Technical Note. That's really not good enough. I also couldn't find the X140's frequencies so how on earth you can evaluate its efficacy and connectivity with other services is beyond me.

2. When set against previously published Network Development Papers these proposals are fairly pale imitations. Clearly financial pressures at TfL have scaled back TfL's previous ambitions.

3. The changes to the 241 and 300 were not part of previous papers and look like a hasty last minute change that is pretty unsatisfactory. In fact almost all of the East London changes are pretty poor IMO. Why double the service to Here East when the 388 is never ever stressed on that section *and* there is a shuttle bus too.

4. As with many schemes TfL is trying hard to keep costs constrained hence the unexpected impacts on certain services, especially in West London. Overall West London does best in terms of new links but there are nasty downsides like the cut to the 223.

5. There is a subtle inference that Borough Councils (and developers / private landlords) have to "do their thing" to find stand space to avoid several aspects of the scheme not proceeding. This particularly affects Custom House and some West London proposals.

6. Many of the proposals are "stepping stones" towards possible later plans. The 440 was going to go to Wembley. The 218 is supposed to take over part of the 72 service to Roehampton but problems on Hammersmith Bridge stop this for now. Expect a later reorganisation of Hammersmith area services. The 304 may end up running via the Silvertown Tunnel if it's ever built.

7. I suspect the service development people haven't really been let loose yet. TfL's new "Bus Strategy" was discussed last May in private by the Customer Service Cttee but has not been published. That's the thing that will really cause the "bus maps to be out of date" (but they already are badly out of date).
PC There was a plan for a bus turning circle on the nw corner of Vic Dock Rd/Freemasons on the site of the Kilkenny Castle, but the decision to site Crossrail station at Custom House rather than Prince Regent, then redesign of Custom House exit to be on that site put paid to those plans. The cynic in me thinks that ExCel had a big say in the siting of that station, where there was more space near Prince Regent, to include space for taxi rank and a shuttle to LCY, both lacking at Custom House.
@ Scrumpy - I know hindsight is marvellous but when I look at the ludicrous chopping and changing required in the bus network to reach Custom House I can't help but feel that the Crossrail station is in the wrong place. Either Prince Regent or Canning Town would have been vastly more efficient in terms of bus access and not needing to break quite so many local links.
Cutting South Kenton off from the main local shopping area seems a bit drastic. If the main problem is stand space, why not combine the 223 with the H14? Thit would free up space stands both at Harrow Bus Station (223) and at NPH (H14).
Thanks for the bendy bus info JC!
Looking at the West London changes they don't appear too bad. Except for the curtailment of the 427. Loads of people will still want to travel on the Uxbridge Road by bus; Crossrail is not an adequate solution for people looking to go from Ealing to Acton (Acton Mainline is miles away from Acton town centre), and does not stop anywhere near Ealing Hospital.
These changes are mixed bag, some of them seem pretty decent (namely in SE London, some of the West London ones are good too), the NE London ones all seem a bit pointless, almost as if TFL are faffing around with routes for the sake of it (who's going to use the 330 to Pontoon Dock, terminating in the middle of nowhere), whilst over here in West you have sensible suggestions like the X140/278 route, but then you have the 112 extension to Osterley Tesco, which isn't going to work as that route is already crippled by its reliability, and has probably only been set up because it runs through Sky's business park and they want to stop running their shuttle bus to Ealing Broadway.
@drD
I used 2 bendy buses in Kirkwall, Orkney the other day. They were operating a shuttle service from the Halston Ferry Pier to town for cruise ship passengers. I am not cetain if the are ex-TfL as I never got to use them in London.
The 278 number evokes the 273 which at one time ran from Ealing to Ruislip then on to Hayes via Hillingdon.
@Scrumpy@Timbo

255 is indeed the most re-used route number in London.

@Timbo You've forgotten the other two route 255s in the LT period.

255 FELTHAM, Hampton Road, TEDDINGTON 27/O5.1936 > 05/10.1937

255 CHISWICK, Chiswick Lane, TURNHAM GREEN 11/12.1928 > 02/10.1934
You might like this. It's unrelated to this particular post, but related to theme of this blog:
http://hackaday.com/2017/07/13/retrotechtacular-london-bus-overhaul/
@ Jon Combe

Some bendy buses are operating in Brighton. The exit doors have been fitted with swing bars to discourage freeloaders boarding.
A reduced service on the 140 bus is going to be horrible! It's already very overcrowded and will just get worse, especially for those not close enough to the stops served by the new X140.

Last month I used the 140 to get from South Harrow to the Target Roundabout and back again between 3.45am and 6.30am, and thought I'd have the bus to myself! How wrong I was! There were at least a dozen other passengers already on the earlier bus!

Between Harrow Bus Station and South Harrow it follows the 114 route, but as the 2 buses usually seem to run consecutively it will no doubt just make both services more crowded in that stretch. Oh joy!
Outcome of consultation (W London)

140: cut back from Heathrow Airport to Hayes & Harlington (except at night)
X140: NEW LIMITED STOP ROUTE from Harrow to Heathrow (see 140)
218: NEW ROUTE from North Acton to Hammersmith (see 266 and 440)
223: cut back from Harrow to Northwick Park Hospital
266: cut back from Hammersmith to Acton Town Hall (except at night)
278: NEW ROUTE from Ruislip to Heathrow via Hayes & Harlington (see 140)
306: NEW ROUTE from Acton Vale to Fulham, Sand's End (see 266 and 391)
391: cut back from Fulham to Hammersmith
427: cut back from Acton to Southall
440: diverted to serve Acton Main Line
E10: larger single deckers introduced

Will be happening later
95: extended to Southall Waterside
E5: diverted in Southall via Burns Avenue
H32: extended from Southall to Hayes & Harlington

Won't be happening
112: extended from Ealing Broadway to Osterley, Tesco
120: frequency increase
E1: frequency reduction
E10: frequency increase
Outcome of consultation (NE London)

25: cut back from Oxford Circus to Holborn Circus (imminently)
104: route split - will operate between Stratford and Beckton (see also 304)
241: cut back from Canning Town (Hermit Road) to Custom House
300: diverted to serve Custom House rather than Prince Regent
304: NEW ROUTE between Manor Park and Custom House (see also 104)
330: extended from Canning Town to Silvertown via North Woolwich Road
474: rerouted between London City Airport and Canning Town via Custom House
497: NEW ROUTE between Harold Wood and Harold Hill (linked to Crossrail phase 2)

Won't be happening
115: rerouted away from Commercial Road via Whitechapel station
241: extended from Stratford City to Here East
174: frequency increased
256: double-decking
Outcome of consultation (SE London)

129: extended from Greenwich to Lewisham (replacing route 180)
161: diverted northbound via Woolwich town centre
178: double-decking
180: diverted to terminate at North Greenwich instead of Lewisham; also extended from Belvedere to Erith Quarry
291: double-decking
301: NEW ROUTE from Bexleyheath to Woolwich via Abbey Wood and Thamesmead
469: diverted between Abbey Wood and Belvedere via Woolwich Road
472: extended from Thamesmead to Abbey Wood
B11: cut back from Thamesmead to South Thamesmead

Won't be happening
244: double-decking










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