please empty your brain below |
It doesn’t need to be an even number. If there are 639 voting MPs (after subtracting Sinn Fein, the Speaker and his deputies), and 320 are Tory while 319 aren’t, that’s a majority of 1.
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Whatever you do with the speaker and his deputies, as there’s four of them, it doesn’t affect the parity of the majority.
Treatment of Sinn Féin is the key variable. |
2005
Labour: 356 (out of 646) Others: 290 Official majority: 356-290 = 66 2015 Conservatives: 331 (out of 650) Others: 319 Official majority: 331-319 = 12 |
My thinking behind my guess was that the Tories were eight short of a majority in 2017, I reckon they'll lose a couple of seats in London, so they'll have to make those up plus a few more, so even if the Tories win around 20 more seats than last time that'll still only give them a majority of somewhere around 10, so getting into the 20s means winning 30 more seats and so on.
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Who would’ve thought a sweepstake would be so popular? My lord Geezer has his finger on the pulse of his audience once again:)
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Snapshot at quarter past ten
So far 24 people have picked a number somebody else has already chosen. 44 is the highest unselected even number, and -14 the lowest. |
Fingers crossed Alex Halpern wins.
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DG, that's incorrectly phrased. 68 is a lower unselected even number, and 156 (territory in which I'd leave the country!) a higher one
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As my guess will testify, I clearly am clueless about "the way subtraction works". I have always thought it was possible to have either an even or odd result following subtraction.
dg writes: X-(650-X) = 2X-650 = 2(X-325) |
3pm update
All numbers between 6 and 34 taken. All even numbers between -26 and 54 taken. |
I went for 44 as the lowest available even number, though given a choice would have gone for something nearer 30!
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36 people have voted for a majority already chosen. Their choices are saved elsewhere.
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DG for PM!
Err . . . . Well, perhaps. Be careful what you wish for. |
Time up!
(gulp) |
Exit poll suggesting majority of 86.
We were nowhere near. |
Good example of herd behaviour? Most people chose the nearest possible answer to everyone else’s. I imagine we’d have seen very different results if everyone had predicted blind to others’ predictions.
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Consider the electoral void well and truly howled-into.
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