please empty your brain below
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This is the box for general comments,
not predictions.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.01.21 - 12:02 a.m. | #
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We left the single market and customs union. Even though this isn’t the hardest Brexit, this is still a hard Brexit.
Fred Thomas | 02.01.21 - 1:16 a.m. | #
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I agree with Fred. We are in future number 2. We got a Deal in the same was as the Withdrawl was an agreement.
JonF | 02.01.21 - 7:21 a.m. | #
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The choice I offered you in July was "either a deal will be struck with the EU or we're going to crash out on New Year's Eve on WTO terms".
No, we didn't get a soft Brexit. But this is still a deal, hence option 4.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.01.21 - 7:56 a.m. | #
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For the purpose of this exercise you are, of course, right. But we must never let this government and Laura Kuenssberg succeed in their branding exercise that this wasn’t a hard Brexit.
Fred Thomas | 02.01.21 - 8:38 a.m. | #
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And if we apply our poor prediction skills to general elections, its its not surprising that we end up disillusioned
Scientist | 02.01.21 - 8:40 a.m. | #
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Many thanks for the update, DG. However, I shall not be convinced the current US president is "on his way out" until he and his worldly goods are safely heading out of Washington on a pick-up truck hired from Four Seasons Total Landscaping...
cau1khead | 02.01.21 - 9:57 a.m. | #
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Spare a thought for those for whom Christmas will never be the same again.
timbo | 02.01.21 - 10:07 a.m. | #
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I'm surprised not to have predicted in November but I'll settle with my 2 from July. 2/3 right isn't bad, particularly as Trump is out, but it amply shows the extent to which betting is a mug's game!
NickW | Homepage | 02.01.21 - 10:30 a.m. | #
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Unlike the previous request for predictions, this one is going to be difficult to evaluate, even when we know the outcome. I guess a good prediction result would be for the actual date to be in the second or third quartile of our predictions.
However, one does also feel a bit queasy about treating an issue where many people are dying before their time as an exercise in evaluating public guesses.
Malcolm of Kent | 02.01.21 - 10:55 a.m. | #
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we are not in lockdown right now. nor was November. Back in April/may only grocery stores were open. Under the new Tiers cafes and other shops (Poundland!) are open, it is not the same as the full lockdown.
I would classify it as ‘lockdown’, ‘new normal’ and ‘old normal’.
we are currently in ‘new normal’ and we can only hope that we may one day get back to ‘old normal’. but also accept that this may never happen.
AndrewD | 02.01.21 - 11:09 a.m. | #
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Which shops are "essential" seems to have been expanded, but cafés were allowed to open for takeaway/delivery throughout the first lockdown. Many just chose not to.
Alex | 02.01.21 - 11:23 a.m. | #
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Got it right in November, though my prediction had a relaxed Christmas before the January lockdown, which wasn't the case in London
Mikey C | 02.01.21 - 11:37 a.m. | #
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I think a lot of people are not seeing this as a full lockdown, and it probably also depends where you live, but as far as London is concerned, I disagree.
The shops that are open now are the same as those during the first lockdown.
We got a takeaway delivered for my son's birthday in April, Poundland sells food and our one at least, has remained open throughout.
That people are not viewing it as a 'proper' lockdown is a big part of the reason why things are getting worse right now, instead of better.
Cornish Cockney | 02.01.21 - 12:03 p.m. | #
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Sure, you can argue this isn't proper lockdown.
But the choice I offered in July was
LOCKDOWN (anything tougher than the new regime that starts on Saturday)
or
NEW NORMAL (anything better, e.g. pubs and restaurants being open).
We're definitely not in the latter.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.01.21 - 12:23 p.m. | #
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After 75 votes (thanks!),
55% of you say 2021,
43% of you say 2022
3% of you say 2023.
Seasonally speaking Autumn 2021 is winning,
followed by Summer 2021 and Spring 2022.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.01.21 - 12:27 p.m. | #
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I forecast a bigger bogey than Trump or Sars Cv-19 will determine what kind of life we lead from April 2021.
B | 02.01.21 - 1:35 p.m. | #
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Samuel Pepys was no better at foresight than us, writing that 1665 (plague) was a lousy year, and he was looking forward to visiting a new bakery in the new year that had opened in Pudding Lane. Not sure if he got there before it burned down.
scrumpy | 02.01.21 - 1:42 p.m. | #
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No idea. Too much "world beating" hype and fluff. Not enough facts to make a constructive guess.
Scrumpy | 02.01.21 - 3:39 p.m. | #
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It's a guess not an estimate. If I make one, it will be a wild one.
Sarah | Homepage | 02.01.21 - 6:19 p.m. | #
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Been thinking about this all day. Somehow what we have experienced in the last few months makes me feel we are in for a very long get out of this chaos curve. All the talk of Spring 2021 is understandable because we don't want to lose all hope but adding another year seems the wiser option. Don't forget most big businesses are already telling staff they are working from home until at least next summer...
ap | 02.01.21 - 8:45 p.m. | #
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Never.
Because we have a considerably more infectious variant in circulation now, which will be impossible to control, even with mandatory vaccinations, we will end up with restrictions every winter: we may well end up celebrating Christmas at the summer solstice every year, without mass gatherings of any sort.
Cassandra | 02.01.21 - 10:30 p.m. | #
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Hmm, 55+43+3=101; and given my prediction was not in the date range you are reporting on, I would have expected your percentage to add up to less than 100%. Nonetheless, an interesting exercise. Unfortunately, I doubt your readers are a representative random sample of the population, beloved by pollsters, as anyone who reads your blog must be above average in looks and intelligence. Its author surely is.
Cassandra | 03.01.21 - 10:05 p.m. | #
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(sigh)
diamond geezer | Homepage | 03.01.21 - 10:06 p.m. | #
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