please empty your brain below
Nice analysis. Our good citizens of Britain have always had a bit of trouble in the numbers/statistics department. The big problem is those idiots in the media who these days churn out press releases as though they are news, and think that marriages between soap opera characters are more important than mass murders around the world. Its their job to get to the bottom of this sort of drivel, and tell people what it really means, but they are so out of practice at this that their brains would fuse if they tried.

Expect a crass BBC web page detailing this stuff, with cheerful advice such as 'what to do if you live in a high crime area' and 'steps to secure your home', all copied off the internet by people paid to know better.

Max Roberts | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 7:41 a.m. | #

Never bothered to look at crime maps before although l had heard about them as l felt that they were just political BS to make people feel better.

Vetnurse | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 8:40 a.m. | #

Point of order Max Roberts - I don't think there is anything in BBC contracts regards part payment for simply 'knowing better' - unless you know better that is, err...

Anyway - yes - came to exact same conclusion - I used to live in Hackney - Hackney - and its crime level is... Average. Well - average for Hackney. Now I live in Bedford and the crime level is... Average - in fact checking back on the past 5 postcodes I have lived at they all come up Average - so a bit pointless then.

garax | 08.01.09 - 8:48 a.m. | #

Having dealt with politicians and journalists, I'm always amazed by the total belief they place in what they call "the figures". Partly it's because quoting statistics, and other figures such as expenditure levels, makes it look as if they know what they're talking about. But they seem to think that "the figures" represent perfect, unambiguous knowledge, not subject to errors, contrasting interpretations or distortion. The more people keep chipping away at this view, the happier I am (and to be fair to the BBC, they have featured some helpful articles on statistical interpretation on their website recently). But I don't see politicians and journalists going cold turkey on "the figures" any time soon...

Baldassaro | 08.01.09 - 8:55 a.m. | #

Our neighbourhood watch provides details of weekly crimes down to street level. One can see how dangerous it is to read too much into them. A road has no crime for years then suddenly has three. But they are all very similar (usually criminal damage under £500) and probably the result of one person one day. One road features a lot but that is partly because it is a very long road with lots of high density properties.

And a warning to you all. Don't move to Purley because you think its safe. We are awash with crime. You wouldn't believe the number of "theft of car registration plates" we get.

Pedantic of Purley | 08.01.09 - 9:13 a.m. | #

DG, you're the Ben Goldacre of news coverage. Excellent post.

Simon | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 9:55 a.m. | #

I remember that a few years ago that England's crime hotspot (murders up 200\\%, car theft up 300\\%) was The City of London. This is, of course, because all of the "statistics" were based on per capita figures of the (I think) 8000 residents.

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

Gavin | 08.01.09 - 10:09 a.m. | #

Well said!

The maps are just pointless mathematical masturbation.

Dave | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 10:46 a.m. | #

As someone who would love to be able to get a house in London one day in the far future could I just urge you all to disregard this post and focus on the important fact that London is a very scary, dangerous and violent place. Life expectancy is only 17, the most common cause of death is by shooting (usually tank fire) and even neighbourhood muggers are reporting ever more difficult conditions on the streets as conglomerate 'super muggers' prey on small local operations. Our Blond Warrior tries his best but shadowy paramilitary Livingstonian units are gaining in power - it's now so dangerous to go outside that post is dropped via helicopter.

So run away, Londoners... run away and never return!

Red Dalek | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 12:04 p.m. | #

V. good post DG - have you read or been reading "The Tiger That Isn't" by Michael Blastland & Andrew Dilnot? Does a very good job of dissecting what numbers and statistics can and can't do - if you haven't read it then I recommend it (although it may just be telling you everything you already know)

Chris Applegate | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 12:20 p.m. | #

Crimes - damned Crimes - and statistics

Big Al | 08.01.09 - 12:32 p.m. | #

I saw a map yesterday that purported to show that kids in East Sussex are much happier than average whereas kids in West Sussex are unhappier than average. Eh?!

Ian | 08.01.09 - 12:45 p.m. | #

Nanny has to justify her ever-increasing intrusion into our personal lives and freedoms somehow.

La-La-Labour I believe Nanny's called...

Blue Witch | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 1:21 p.m. | #

i would like to think that the politicians using the stats don't actually believe in them, either. that it is just another cynical ploy to further push their political agenda of the day. while the maps are lovely to look at, i don't particularly pay them any mind. i understand why politicans use them, though: the british public is becoming as short-sighted as the american public. now that is a horrifying thought

petoskystone | 08.01.09 - 1:35 p.m. | #

How strange. Why do they have these new pointless maps when better existing ones already exist which actually offer some meaning?

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds...s/ia/
atlas.html

Tom | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 2:22 p.m. | #

Something that will please you DG, Boris got fined for not paying his Congestion Charge recently.

Debster | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 5:37 p.m. | #

BoJo got caught out by the congestion charge? No wonder he wants to scrap it...

Regarding the crime maps, I've been looking up my area, and a rough estate near me has an 'average' crime rate, but muggings and petty offences there seem to happen every day. At least the variation in Hertfordshire's crime maps seems to be fair. The Met, meanwhile, seems to list pretty much all of Enfield as 'average', at least when it comes to total notifiable offences.

Without delving into the political side of things, I think it depends on whether you actually trust the statistics.

Andrewh | 08.01.09 - 8:09 p.m. | #

Statistics are tools to be interpreted by professionals, not to be given out freely in such a way to misinform people...

John Belo | Homepage | 08.01.09 - 11:09 p.m. | #

What does that even mean really - do you suppose 'professionals' to have some super human ability that 'people' do not? Last time I checked 'professionals' were also people - and people who didn't happen to work in the National Statistics Office could just about grasp the general idea of information represented by numbers. I think I'd rather be 'misinformed' than not informed at all - which appears to be the logical conclusion of your comment.

garax | 09.01.09 - 8:22 a.m. | #

Why are you not writing for a national newspaper? this is by far the best description I've read yet of the utter pointlessness of unexplained statistics.

hermi | 09.01.09 - 5:00 p.m. | #

One of your best, DG.

Great Aunt Annie | 09.01.09 - 5:48 p.m. | #

I had some fun telling my father that the village where he lives has seen a 100\\% increase in theft over the last twelve months. 2006 there was one burglary, last year there was 2. Interesting to prove that they live in a place so boring that it has hardly any crime but other than that quite pointless

Gareth Wyn | Homepage | 09.01.09 - 9:39 p.m. | #

I see that Sub Ward E01004736, which includes Buckingham Palace has a high crime rate - 376 crimes in November alone. Is Harry back from the army?

Lars | 25.01.09 - 6:46 a.m. | #











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