please empty your brain below |
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In my (non-London) ward, the Labour councilor defected to Greens some months ago. This week the 'left' vote split between the two, allowing the Reform candidate to be elected. Makes me wonder how the Greens profile improvements have benefited Reform in other areas.
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Surprised at how many are under no overall control. The media mostly focussed on Green, Labour & Reform!
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There would be something very satisfying about getting rid of your City of London square, moving Tow, New and B&D one to the left and Hav one down to create perfect rotational symmetry.
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When you did your previous piece on the London elections, I looked up my borough on the website you mentioned. They predicted pretty well no change, whereas there were some big surprises including wins for Greens and Lib Dems leading to no overall control. So I just thought I'd comment that the website got my borough badly wrong. I wonder how it was for all the other boroughs?
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Frank F - let's not forget that the 'right' vote is also split. And neither side of either split like the other party on their 'wing' and most of their voters don't either. You might have got 'vote for us to stop them' voters, but there was a lot of campaigning about that (complete with dodgy bar charts) and not a lot of sign of tactical voting - I'd imagine that people would have stayed home had they not been aware of a party that fits their views better than the other party on the 'left'/'right'.
Plus there's the Green profile improvements leading to them dropping in the polls this last week. And then, of course, there's the Red Wall up north switching directly from Labour to Reform suggesting that it isn't as simple as left-right voting blocs (without even looking at the Lib Dems in the 'centre') |
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I wonder if the change at Westminster will have ramifications for the pedestrianisation of Oxford Street. I would have assumed Khan is a canny enough operator that things are too advanced to be reversed by now, but…?
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"No overall control" covers a multitude of sins! Away from London and surrounds, Reform UK tends to be the largest group on the respective councils; this seems to be less so in the capital...
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Looks like the Greens could have easily won Haringey as there were a few wards where they only had 1 candidate - who came top - followed by a couple of Labour.
Feels like we need a new colour to properly distinguish Reform from Conservative - how about vomit colour. |
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Apparently City Hall has managed to wrest control of Oxford St from Westminster council, but the newly-installed Tories have said they’ll challenge the pedestrianisation in court on behalf of the local residents, who broadly oppose the scheme, so that might delay it.
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My understanding is that the consulted-upon establishment of a Mayoral Development Area earlier this year puts the mayor in control of the relevant areas of Oxford Street, although I'm sure the new council will still find ways to make a big fuss, maybe they'll put up a bigger fake hill in protest.
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Rachel Tripp remaining the sole Labour councillor in Stratford & Bow is a real credit to her. She was my councillor for four years and she was the best I’ve had in my life.
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Worth noting the MDA doesn't cover all (if any, it was reduced following the initial draft) the neighbouring/parallel streets where changes would be required to facilitate pedestrianisation. After an initial whine, Labour-controlled Westminster seemed likely to work with TfL and the MDC pragmatically but given the Tories have pledged going to court I very much doubt they are going to implement the changes needed on their turf for the changes to traffic management.
Matt, While there were wards where the Greens missed out because they didn't run a full slate, Haringey (and parts of Hackney I believe) were not part of them. They instead made a deal with the socialists alliance in some wards hence the incomplete slate. Said independents underperformed the Green branded candidate(s) by significant margins. |
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Even before the election, I'd heard that Zach Polanski was being lined up as the Green candidate for Stratford and Bow as the Green's viewed it as a winnable seat.
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Another example of the perversity of first past the post - Aspire have won 2/3rds of the council seats in Tower Hamlets with 1/3rd of the vote.
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I wonder if Birmingham will settle into a "traffic light" coalition or similar loose arrangement.
Noting also that East Anglia went very Reform (underreported, with poll reinstated after complaints of cancellation pending local government reforms). Exceptions/surprises: one NOC with Reform largest, Norwich City Green, Thurrock Reform. Many will be "abbreviated" seats pending the local government reform and a fresh vote for an incoming shadow set of councillors within a couple of years. |
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Zack has said publicly he'd like to run near his home in Hackney also naming Tottenham and Walthamstow. Although, based on these results, there's probably a dozen seats in East London where he could sail through.
It'll be interesting to see if left-wing independents stand in seats in Tower Hamlets, Newham, and Redbridge and potentially split the anti-Labour vote like this week. |
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Re Birmingham: The Green have already successfully worked in coalition up and down the country by splitting the left vote and letting Reform in through the middle, so why not make it official?
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It's interesting that many north London councils are still dominated by the 2 "main" parties. Barnet has a token Green, Enfield has 5 while Harrow has just 1 independent.
Indeed Harrow saw the Conservatives increase their majority, at Labour's expense. |
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