please empty your brain below

It’s not simply the cost premium that makes these boroughs a bad transport bet ... it is also the frequency and the speed. Many SWR trains are still running a half-hourly service off peak (“in response to COVID”) - and the buses are deadly slow, achieving I think something like 6mph.
Don't forget that Beddington Lane used to be a station - or rather a halt, on the old Wim Wom line.
I reckon Southwark only contains 9 TfL stations - Bermondsey, Borough, Canada Water, Elephant & Castle, Kennington, London Bridge, Rotherhithe, Southwark and Surrey Quays.

Denmark Hill is managed by Thameslink, whilst Peckham Rye and Queens Road Peckham are run by Southern, so I’d say they don't count.

Or am I missing something?
Fares from the NR stations could be even more expensive, except that most people going into central London will hit the daily cap if they use the Tube once they get there. I come in from Hackbridge (Z4) and need to get to Warren St, which would be £12.60 return if it weren't capped at £11. Of course, if Hackbridge were a Tube station it would be all of £8.60. But then I couldn't take the bus 3 stops for "free" if I'm feeling lazy when I get home. :)
You can always invert it and say that there are many more National Rail stations in Richmond (13) than Westminster (just two). But yes, the point about disparity in pricing still stands.
I guess all this will change when Crossrail 2 blasts its way on to the Kingston Loop but - I'm not holding my breath for that one.
This all due to geology. When the deep tube lines were built, the ground under South London was considered too hard to bore through, unlike the predominant clay north of the river.

Modern boring machines can cope better.
Sounds like an argument for total integration of fare zones both on TfL and National Rail within the GLA area, so that it would cost the same for a journey whichever combination you choose. I believe Sadiq Khan has argued for this — or for responsibility for all services in the area, which would include fares — but with current Treasury hostility apparently aiming to obliterate TfL completely, the chances seem remote.
One of the many reasons why the residents of Barnes were so up in arms about the closure of Hammersmith Bridge. Barnes is not well connected at all, but if you can cross over the bridge into Hammersmith, suddenly London is your oyster.
As per DG's competitions, there are two TfL stations in Kingston, both Bus 🚌 stations.
I was always led to believe that housing in unTubed areas is cheaper than the equivalent with easy Tube access, so the extra spent on fares is saved in rent or mortgage payments. Is that still the case? Was it ever, in fact?
When you say of Beddington Lane Tramstop that “It might as well not be in Sutton for all the use it is”, I assume you mean “use it is to residents of Sutton”. But that might give the impression that it is of no use at all. You mention the industrial sites nearby (well known to MWLB like me) and workers there who live in Merton or Croydon find it very useful. And I find it as a Merton resident a useful place from which to access Mitcham Common, as I imagine do Croydon residents. But if it was in fact in Merton it would be of even less use to Merton residents, ditto for Croydon.
It's fascinating to know that when I took a tram in 2016 from central Croydon to here, en route to a funeral at Croydon Crematorium - I was actually straying onto Sutton territory.
There are similar quirks on the Network Railcard map--it would be interesting to see which counties are best/worst served by that discount, and it would highlight that the scheme is both quite generous but also unfair (comparable nearby journeys of similar distances in the same county). A universal off peak railcard would greatly improve equity of rail fares.

The LSE Rail services map also highlights cases where the start/end of a journey is in the railcard validity but the stations in between (on the most logical route) are not (e.g. the line through Frome, Somerset).
I suspect a condition of integration would be the raising of TfL fares to match non-TfL ones, rather than a lowering to match TfL.
The geology of south London is often given as a reason for the limited number of deep level tubes there but this overlooks the fact that both the earliest and most recent projects have been south of the river showing tunnels can be built given the will. And also that many of the stations north of the river are at surface level.

The real explanation is the very different approaches of the Southern Railway (& predecessor companies) compared to the rest of the Big Four. Whereas north of the river companies were willing to share or hand over local branches to the Underground to free up space for longer distance traffic, the Southern Railway was always much more commuter focused and actually fought against the Underground advancing further into its sphere of influence. Hence the compromise that prevented the District and Northern Lines from getting to Sutton that would otherwise have taken the borough out of this post.
People in Sutton and Kingston can at least console themselves that they are better off than those living outside London, at least in terms of bus fares and Freedom Passes.
To add to Tim's valid points about the Southern Railway's commuter focus; this may stem from the geographical fact that there is far more scope for long-distance traffic northward and westward from London, because of where London is situated, in the south-east corner of the land.
Epping Forest - 8
Buckinghamshire, Three Rivers - 5
Watford - 3
Slough - 2
Brentwood, Broxbourne - 1
Windsor & Maidenhead, Wokingham, Reading - sort of 1 each (Maidenhead, Twyford, Reading)
Malcolm - Anotherfactor is that the northern rsilways were primarily interested in freight, which was more lucrative and didn't complain if it was delayed - particularly coal. There were few coal mines south of the Thames.

I note that Crossrail has just five stations south of the Thames, and three of those are in Berkshire
The other point about the comparative lack of tube stations south of the Thames is that by the time the tubes were being built South London already had a pretty comprehensive rail network (the exception being that the first tube plugged one of the holes), Even before the LBSCR started the Southern electrification ball rolling, the gaps that the tube filled north of the Thames barely existed to the south.

Geology doesn't really come into it, demand does.










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