please empty your brain below
|
I think your analysis is generally spot on. Need to consider who is funding schemes and whether they will bring in money. So ULEZ expansion will bring in much needed cash for TfL and we have all now seen how much pollution there really is in London so I see that going ahead and even rapidly expanded to cover the whole of London. Silvertown tunnel was meant to be a PFI scheme so may still go ahead if there is little up front cost for TfL. HS2 is an oddity and is going ahead as an economic stimulus project. The rest as you say are likely to be cancelled or severely delayed.
Transport budget will be spent on reorganising stations and services to maintain social distancing.
wilco | 23.04.20 - 7:14 a.m. | #
|
Well let's hope that the totally unnecessary Brexit will be top of the 'snuffed out' list.
That self indulgent, bad for the economy lunacy, which has already been seen in this pandemic, to be bad for the NHS.
A complete waste of four years for the United Kingdom, that has not acheived one improvement in the lives of Brits.
Every cloud has a silver llining.
Steve | Homepage | 23.04.20 - 8:03 a.m. | #
|
|
It was the remainder of the Northern Heights scheme that was cancelled. The first phase, tube trains north of what is now called Archway, was opened in 1941.
Malcolm | 23.04.20 - 8:04 a.m. | #
|
|
If one advocates Keynsian fiscal stimulation these are the types of projects a government should consider funding, especially with interest rates at such low rates historically. Unfortunately few of those mentioned are 'shovel ready' ...
PJS | 23.04.20 - 8:06 a.m. | #
|
ULEX expansion will go ahead and it makes money, and that is really all TFL is interested in
on another matter, be prepared for virus to be the catch-all excuse for ANYTHING over the next few years. price increases ("it's the virus mate"), can't get a plumber ("it's the virus mate"), can't get the parts ("it's the virus mate"), wages dropping ("it's the virus mate"), lack of staff ("it's the virus mate"), too many staff ("it's the virus mate"), early closing ("it's the virus mate"), etc etc
you get the picture
bert | 23.04.20 - 8:23 a.m. | #
|
It will be hard to resist legalising electric scooters and surely these will become hugely popular.
I predict that the main cycling organisations will embrace scooters very soon after they become legal, and campaign for road space for them, and that the London Cycling Campaign will be among the first.
It's known that cycling tends to take traffic from public transport rather than private cars, and probably so will scooters. But the demand to keep them off the pavements will increase the drive to provide more segregated routes that they can share with cycles, so motor traffic will also be squeezed. So in terms of infrastructure, I predict more space for cycling and scootering (or whatever we will call it.) Also this is relatively cheap to provide.
Tony Woolf | 23.04.20 - 8:36 a.m. | #
|
What Steve said. And some.
Co-operation and collaboration - as opposed to separatism - must be an imperative as the current dreadful situation appears set to continue for an unforeseeable length of time.
Frank F | 23.04.20 - 8:36 a.m. | #
|
Brexit may be more important than ever now, to remove us from the yoke of EU restrictions. Recovery from this crisis is going to involve relaxation of many rules, and innovative solutions to boost the economy. Can the EU move quick enough to recover? It seems unlikely, but a independent UK may be able to. The government is still carrying on with the process of leaving, so few signs yet that this will stop.
Big government-funded infrastructure projects are one way of boosting the economy. Many of the plans that were cancelled by WWII resulted from the government new works programme to get over the great depression, so we could see a similar boost this time with some projects being accelerated rather than cancelled.
Jimbo | 23.04.20 - 9:02 a.m. | #
|
Agree with Terry Woolf about electric scooters. I wonder too whether there will be Boris-Bike style public loan schemes for them (Sadiq Scooters?). Turin has such, at least.
I think some of the more vital redevelopment/regenration projects - those south of the A13 (so probably including Beam Park station and more likely still the Barking Riverside extension) probably will make the cut. But otherwise the assessment here is something I more or less concur with.
Dominic H | 23.04.20 - 9:03 a.m. | #
|
Back on topic, I reckon DG's analysis is pretty good.
The only thing I would seriously query is the introduction of new Piccadilly line trains being further away than ever. True in the sense that Covid-19 will almost certainly lead to delays in the delivery timetable but false in the sense that I believe this will go ahead anyway.
My reasoning is that the contract is signed so it can't be cancelled without enormous cost (and Siemens, even more so now, won't want the contract cancelled). Perhaps more important, the Piccadilly line trains as well beyond their 'use by' date, their technology doesn't lead to further life extension programmes and anyway the cost of patching them up probably exceeds the cost of buying new stock.
The same logic does not apply to the Bakerloo line trains which are made of more basic technology, have already been patched up to give them decades more life and are of an earlier generation (despite being only very slightly older) that is capable of being able to keep going almost indefinitely.
Pedantic of Purley | 23.04.20 - 9:05 a.m. | #
|
|
If the Bakerloo trains keep going for much longer, it'll be a bit of a Ship of Theseus situation. Will they really be 50 years old when over half the train is newer than that?
Chz | 23.04.20 - 9:35 a.m. | #
|
Dominic: Some of the 'floating' bike hire companies (eg Lime, and Jump - which is owned by Uber) operate e-scooters in other cities, and I'd imagine could flood London with them at the drop of a hat.
While I don't have a huge problem with people using them, storage is a problem. Chained-up bikes don't usually obstruct pavements, but 'parked' dockless bikes and scooters often get left where they get in the way.
martin | 23.04.20 - 9:38 a.m. | #
|
|
Whilst harder to group together, I believe the numerous large construction projects across London (£20m+) will all eventually complete. There will not be any half-finished concrete frame construction sites left abandoned. The site I work on (>500 new homes and shops) will re-open on Monday.
Anon | 23.04.20 - 10:02 a.m. | #
|
|
I agree with PoP that the replacement Piccadilly Line trains will arrive. Not so sure about the replacement signalling to make the most of them though...
Mikey C | 23.04.20 - 10:08 a.m. | #
|
|
Anon - I'm intrigued by what's changed since the decision to stop work which makes it sensible to re-open a construction site next week.
Andrew S | 23.04.20 - 10:18 a.m. | #
|
While TfL is obviously struggling with slashed revenue, its problems are seriously compounded by constant cuts in central government funding over recent years and — particularly — the extraordinary Treasury COVID emergency funding rules that give squillions to private bus companies and effectively re-nationalise rail franchises, but refuse any money for the Underground or tram/light rail services elsewhere in the UK. Public ownership of, say, trams in Manchester and Sheffield, as well as the Tube, disqualifies them all from government funding.
We all know this government hates local authorities and anything not listed on the stock market, but this seems to be even more short-sighted if the aim is to encourage some kind of economic recovery once lockdown is ended.
Don | 23.04.20 - 10:28 a.m. | #
|
Nothing about the basic facts of this situation is going to change until there is a vaccine in 1-2 years.
So either there is no construction work whatsoever for the next 2 years, or at some point which is impossible to define as right or wrong you start again and accept the risks. Which of those is more sensible?
Most likely what has changed in this specific case is that the construction company has sourced masks for use when the workers have no choice but to be in close proximity.
Jonathan P | 23.04.20 - 11:02 a.m. | #
|
|
Having just returned from a walk round the Olympic Park, almost all the construction sites are up and running again.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 23.04.20 - 11:07 a.m. | #
|
|
The Boris Buses are coming up to their half-life refurbishment. TfL may decide to cut their losses with these and withdraw the fleet, given that the loss of 1000 vehicles might be possible given suitable cuts to routes and services. A smack in the face to Boris’ legacy. Would Sadiq (or even TfL who stopped mentioning them the minute the mayoralty changed) care?
Kim | 23.04.20 - 11:08 a.m. | #
|
My brother returned to work yesterday, there seems to have been some sort of collective decision to start opening businesses again, so I'm not surprised about that construction site resuming work on Monday.
Perhaps that's the real reason for all these Nightingale hospitals, to take the excess casualties when things start up again.
As to your list, some of it could then end up as part of a stimulus package, 'demonstrating our faith in the British economy'.
Bet the Tories are now regretting their 80 seat majority, no one else to blame now, Labour may now be back in 2024.
Still Anon | 23.04.20 - 11:19 a.m. | #
|
If you are a company who have already spent a lot of money part-building something, you will be keen to get it finished ASAP, so you can get that money back before the interest costs overwhelm you.
You wont be as keen on starting new projects, when you have no idea what your shiny new flats might sell for at the end.
matt | 23.04.20 - 11:25 a.m. | #
|
I for one won't be sad to see the demise of HS2 or Heathrow's third runway - both totally unnecessary. Just a shame about all the destruction already caused by HS2.
Everyone has been saying how lovely and quiet it is, and how clean the air is with fewer cars on the road - but if the ULEZ is expanded I hope it fills the entire Greater London boundary rather than just pushing the traffic into the suburbs.
Fewer cars doesn't seem to tempt the cyclists round here off of the pavements though!
Cornish Cockney | 23.04.20 - 11:51 a.m. | #
|
The existing ULEZ area is co-terminous with the Congestion Charge zone and piggybacks on that for its data, I think.
The expanded ULEZ, bounded by North Circular & South Circular, will need a load more kit. Can TfL afford it in its cash-strapped state?
Gordon | 23.04.20 - 12:12 p.m. | #
|
By the time the expanded ULEZ comes in the majority of vehicles on the road will already be new enough to be compliant and exempt. In TfL's modelling its contribution to overall air quality is pretty marginal (vs natural attrition of older vehicles, and the separate schemes for buses/taxis/trucks) and it wouldn't have been a big moneymaker.
If it gets pushed back the case for it gets even worse. I can see it being dropped or completely rethought.
Graham | 23.04.20 - 1:41 p.m. | #
|
The trouble with public transport is in the name - the last thing I want to do in London now is mingle with the public on buses/trams and trains - expect private travel to increase massively and this is where the investment will go.
A couple of comments suggest that Brexit now be cancelled - suggesting the way forward is collaboration etc - in fact the most marked issue of these times has been all the EU countries going their own way with the EU completely out of the picture.
Surbitonian | 23.04.20 - 2:41 p.m. | #
|
|
I hate it, but we left the EU on 31st January!! Too late now to all those who think it can be reversed!!
MikeK | 23.04.20 - 2:50 p.m. | #
|
|
Segregated lanes don't keep cyclists off the pavements, so scooters shouldn't be any different.
JohnC | 23.04.20 - 3:33 p.m. | #
|
|
I can't see how all the vehicles coming in and out of the greatly extended ULEZ, as well as all those driving about inside it, will be tracked and charged. The existing zone is much smaller with cameras at every entrance.
ActonMan | 23.04.20 - 3:35 p.m. | #
|
|
It's only 18 months to when the extended ULEZ is meant to come in. I don't know whether any work has actually started yet. I can't see any sign of new cameras etc by the boundary.
Mikey C | 23.04.20 - 5:56 p.m. | #
|
Re various above: 1938 ex-Bakerloo/Northern stock is of course still doing sterling service from Ryde to Shanklin; so by extrapolation the 1972 stock could still be with us in 2052!
Persistence of an entity as all its components are renewed/replaced is an interesting philosophical point. Is 4472/60103 the same Flying Scotsman created in 1923 and rebuilt several times complete with a change of class not mention all its innards and outards? I feel I am still the same essential person I was several centuries ago despite all my cells having renovated many, many times.
Strabismus | 23.04.20 - 6:43 p.m. | #
|
|
1938 tube stock is not still 'doing sterling service' on the Island line. Services had to be halved in frequency last September due to unreliability, and the fleet is due to be replaced next summer.
tedious off-topic pedant | 23.04.20 - 6:51 p.m. | #
|
|
Common sense (and Keynesian economics) would say that infrastructure projects are a great way to get the economy moving again. But it's a Tory government, so....
James Webber | 23.04.20 - 7:31 p.m. | #
|
|
As long as you do the maintenance correctly things can last for years and that's what I've done. I've maintained this broom for 20 years. This old brooms had 17 new heads and 14 new handles in its time.
Trigger | 23.04.20 - 8:58 p.m. | #
|
|
Still Anon - the lockdown was to "flatten the curve" and slow infections while we get more hospitals. We can't remain in full lockdown indefinitely so the additional hospitals will be needed.
Jon | 24.04.20 - 10:39 a.m. | #
|
Crossrail update
Custom House is the first Crossrail station to be finished and handed over to TfL
youtube.com/watch?v=5r009x5k63o
(precisely 500 days after the line was supposed to have opened)
diamond geezer | Homepage | 26.04.20 - 5:45 p.m. | #
|
7 July update
@SadiqKhan tells @LondonAssembly that upgrade to the Piccadilly line signalling system and the Hammersmith bridge rebuild are both "paused" and will not happen without Government funding.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 07.07.20 - 12:12 p.m. | #
|
|
|
TridentScan v2.10.0 | Privacy Policy
|