please empty your brain below

Depends which type of Londoner notices, compare the ethnic/social make up of cyclists compared with the ethnic/social make up of bus users.

Most policies involve doing things to them - banning them from streets, relocating bus stops, making them cleaner - look at how long it took before TfL finally fitted opening windows on the Borisbuses, the actual passenger is very much a secondary consideration.

On the subject of buses, I understand most of the extra buses than ran on the night of New Years Eve/New Years Day won't run this year.
Once you dip below every 10 minutes passengers perceive waiting time as unattractive and the vicious circle becomes a reality.
Every 15 minutes and you really need a timetable showing scheduled departures to minimise waiting time. TfL only do timetables for very low frequency routes (Orpington’s R’s etc)
Have any routes increased frequency? Have questions been asked in the Assembly?

Is the suggestion that bus passengers are more likely to be people from lower socioeconomic groups than cyclists? Why might that be?
Khan has to pay for his vote winning fares freeze somehow.
Some Londoners have noticed...

[384 petition]
[W12 petition]
Accurate bus tracking apps etc alleviate some of the issues around reduced frequency.

DG reported earlier in the year that two routes have gained frequency this year, although the 390 only partly compensated for losses on other routes along the same roads. The other was the H14
If you live in an area well-served by buses, you probably won't notice as much as there'd usually be another, sub-optimal bus that can be taken instead.
More noticeable on routes served by only one bus, especially if there are no other options but to wait.

At least with the bus app I no longer have to sit there for 45 minutes wondering at what point is it too late to start walking anymore, which I could have done in 30 minutes!
I have to question how the falling demand is measured. Is it objective (genuine passenger number counting) or subjective (assessment from swipes on ticket readers)?

A growing number of passengers from near-daily observation flash non-London passes at the driver who doesn't record them on the machine.

Boarders on 'Boris Buses' blatantly don't tap-in, notably around Shoreditch at weekends, and when/where drivers are changing over - all three doors wide open and the readers are dead until the new driver logs-in...

These may all be marginal in total but when tallied / averaged / weighted, they suggest fewer passengers. Are passenger numbers really falling when London's population is rising in number, and buses are still cheaper on stored-value tickets than tube/trains? Cynicism is a terrible affliction.
Both methods you suggest are the objective. The commentary below which you add is the subjective part.
Don’t forget the impact of Uber. Splitting an Uber between 4 will often beat four bus fares for a short journey
Andrew - the suggestion is that bus users aren't a coherent group like the cycling lobby is, or rail passengers for that matter, here we are at Christmas and the media run their usual story about disruption to train services due to engineering work - this will be followed in the New Year by coverage of fare rises, interviewing passengers etc., every incident is worthy of coverage.

You never see interviews with bus passengers about how their journeys have been disrupted and slowed down, perhaps the perception of those in charge is that bus passengers live lives where it doesn't matter if they are inconvenienced, no doubt because bus use doesn't feature in the lifestyles of those in the media and politics (bit like living in a tower block in West London, which the current Tory councillor in charge of them admitted never visiting).
Joined up thinking is alive and well within TfL as usual then...

On the one hand, they want to reduce car use in London, but then they go and slash bus frequencies.

If I'm on an early start or late finish at work, taking public transport now means I have a 25 minute "connection" between buses as they've withdrawn the "wrong" bus each time, which means leaving home 30 minutes earlier to get to work at the same time as before.

Sod that for a game of soldiers. Back to the car for me.
Assembly Members are beginning to wake up and ask Mayor's Questions. Andrew Dismore has been "on the case" for months with many questions concerning the changes on the Finchley Rd corridor which seems to have been badly implemented. He has also raised concerns over the C11's cut and now Shaun Bailey AM has joined in.

Len Duvall has asked a pre-emptive question about possible cuts in Greenwich and Lewisham boroughs. It will be interesting to see if he gets anything remotely like a straight answer. It is only a matter of time before more AMs start asking more questions and not before time. The Mayor is in breach of his promises to protect services, esp in Outer London. It is a disgrace.

As others have pointed out there is a distinct lack of joined up thinking here. Hacking frequencies back is a nonsense and esp when routes, like the W12, are already low frequency.

One significant policy problem is that the implementation of the Mini Holland in Walthamstow has led to massive overcrowding and congestion on main routes as all the "rat runs" have been shut. This means traffic is so slow that buses now crawl at about 2-3 mph during the school run and peaks which means you need vastly more buses to run the same service level. The alternative is to keep resources the same and hack frequencies and this is what Walthamstow and Leyton are now getting. Vote for cycle lanes, get slow traffic, bus lanes removed and bus cuts as a result. Oh and get cyclists nearly mowing you down as you step near the kerb to hail a bus as happened to me today on the new "shared" infrastructure at my local bus stop. No markings or signs to tell cyclists to give bus passengers priority when a bus approaches or is at a stop. There's an accident waiting to happen given the useless cycle lane design that's been implemented.
Oh and LOTS are reporting that 21 day routes and 18 night route may get reductions in Jan 2018 although the dates may slip.

As stated above it looks like the "day routes that run overnight on NYE" list is being hacked to bits this year. This is probably why TfL have not published a list. Heaven help people in Outer London expecting a bus home on NYE overnight as they've had for the last few years. They're going to be stranded.
The 411 and K3 have timetables so I guess every 15 minutes marks "Ultra low frequency"
@ Mike D - a frequency of 15 mins or less is "low frequency" in terms of the contract and associated performance measurement which is against early or late running against the timetable. High frequency services are measured by the scheduled "gap" or headway between buses and not strictly against the timetable (which is rarely published in detail).

Low frequency services stretch from every 15 mins to every 250 mins or even just a few departures per day. DG has written about these services in the past.
That 1 bus reduction on the W12 has taken the frequency to 2bph. (Despite this, I managed to catch it twice today, with just a few minutes' wait - but that was just by chance).

@PC - the reduction in road capacity should, in theory, lead to 'traffic evaporation' - as fewer people make those journeys by car, thus freeing up more space for buses. Not all of Waltham Forest's motorists seem to have grasped this yet, but I live in hope.
Thanks for keeping an eye on this.

It was only because of you that I learnt 50 percent of the buses from Charlton to Greenwich are going to be axed!
Updated: 11 bus routes are now scheduled to have their daytime frequencies cut in January, plus 10 nightbuses.
@ Martin - I understand the theory but it isn't happening because the main roads now take a double burden at schools / peak times. They have to shoulder all the local short trips and all the through traffic that is not generated by WF residents. That is what is slowing the buses and the ridiculous junction redesigns that WF Council keep inflicting on us. That botched mess at the Central is particularly irksome. Start work and realise half way through that it can't work when TfL send you some traffic modelling of the final design. How incompetent is that?

I've not noticed any great upswing in parents taking their kids to school by bike or kids cycling to school. A lot of the cycling infrastructure seems unused or cyclists still ride on the road. It might come right in time but for now it looks like a monstrous waste of money.
TfL never did tell anyone what buses were actually running on New Years' Eve, astonishingly the TfL Twitter feed referred punters to the londonbusroutes site, this showed that the weekend night buses operated Sun/Mon plus the 51, 56, 97, 109, 115, 118, 133, 161, 164, 174, 185, 248, 269, 358, 422, 432, 476.

Compared with last year the following didn't operate: -

5, 66, 73, 92, 96, 103, 116, 120, 121, 157, 163, 169, 178, 207, 208, 209, 210, 215, 216, 217, 221, 229, 252, 261, 275, 314, 340, 412, 444, C1, C10, E7, H12, U3, U4.

The 56, 115 and 476 were first timers.

As far as I'm aware the New Years night figures aren't published separately, so some routes may have always run nearly empty anyway.
Best move out of London, unprofitable place to live in. I am soon to leave as its like living in the countryside in London especially Enfield where there are hardly any reliable buses except the N29.

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