please empty your brain below
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No disagreement with the figures, but I’d suggest that primary schools differ from the others, since establishing one isn’t always a commercial decision. Indeed, I recall a property developer in Manchester complaining that it was difficult to attract families to some of his developments, because unless children were there, the council wouldn’t establish a primary school, but unless there was a primary school, families wouldn’t move there. He was therefore thinking of working with the promoters of free schools to solve the problem.
I don’t know whether there are rules about pharmacies (I think some of them get support from the NHS), and in some cases the licensing laws might influence the number of pubs. But thanks for this interesting posting.
Baldassaro | 02.07.21 - 7:17 a.m. | #
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I love these back of the envelope type calculations - its a great way to sense check other results. Eg when a local authority requires a housing development to contain so much retail space or to preserve a former pub and this type of analysis shows that the local demand is just not likely to there.
Some of the calculations are complicated by the need to factor in the day time as opposed to the resident population. Coffee shops being a good example, ie, many in some areas depend entirely on local workers rather than residents
kerspatula | 02.07.21 - 7:17 a.m. | #
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This reminds me of an interview question Google would supposedly ask candidates: how many piano tuners are there in London? I suspect you'd be able to come up with a well-reasoned answer.
martin | 02.07.21 - 7:28 a.m. | #
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I think you have mistyped the primary school figure, it should be 21,000 rather than 12,000.
dg writes: typo fixed, thanks.
Bernard | 02.07.21 - 7:50 a.m. | #
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The calculations for corner shop might need to change if the 15 min homedelivery services catch on
Brian | 02.07.21 - 7:51 a.m. | #
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Fascinating stuff.
Are you including dispensing GP practices in your pharmacy figures? If not, the figures might be an underestimate in less urban areas:
"There are around 1,200 dispensing practices in the UK, supplying pharmaceutical services to almost four million of their 8.7 million registered patients.
The rules governing who may or may not receive dispensing services have changed little in the last century; it was Lloyd George’s administration that decided that, in rural areas, where patients lived more than a mile from their nearest pharmacy, an exception must be made to the tenet that “doctors prescribe and pharmacists dispense” and they could ask their doctor to dispense directly to them."
From: DDA Dispensing Guidance 2016.
(there might be newer guidance than this; this is just what was used locally to stop a pharmacy chain opening in an area which would have made GP dispensing uneconomic and, with the loss of dispensing revenue, would have led to the GP practice's closure)
And, every local authority has a formula for all new housing developments that is used to determine (amongst other things) what educational and healthcare provison has to be made. It usually comes as a financial contribution required from the developer (which, I have always thought, is nowhere near the actual cost of providing a new school or new GP surgery and linked services). Each LA's formula is different, according to the demographics of that area.
Blue Witch | Homepage | 02.07.21 - 8:08 a.m. | #
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How many people in the dg catchment area.
Thanks again
Carl | 02.07.21 - 8:09 a.m. | #
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Our rural parish of 3,260 has:
3 pubs
2 pharmacies (one in the surgery)
1 grocers (a Co-Op)
1 undertakers
and 1 piano shop
Re. museums, I visited a National Trust garden on a damp Thursday during the heaviest rain of June and it had a coffee-van parked in a damp glade. The server looked relieved to be talking to someone.
MartinO'Holcombe | 02.07.21 - 8:13 a.m. | #
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Really interesting post. It would be entertaining to learn which parts of the country skew furthest from the fascinatingly-stable-seeming 1500 rule. E.g. is it the City of London, with 10k-ish residents but presumably more than 7 coffee shops?
Ben | 02.07.21 - 8:17 a.m. | #
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In planning a rule of thumb is you need at least 1,000 homes in a new development to support a convenience store. I suspect as they are typically run by a national chain rather than an individual they need increased footfall.
You’d need a lot more to support a pub; the only new developments* with pubs incorporated tend to be 2,000 homes or more.
*i’m mainly thinking of new greenfield development which is more self sufficient than urban brownfield development.
David | 02.07.21 - 8:33 a.m. | #
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A really fascinating look at needs and numbers. It got me thinking how corner shops and parades have changed and how they are still changing. New housing areas on the edge of green belt tend to have parades with coffee shop, pharmacy, Tesco or Sainsbury local store, and a takeaway; older suburban parades may include a charity shop, post office/stationery, chippie, bookie. Vape/coffee shops have appeared but seem mostly empty. I’ve not done a study but it could be a fascinating exercise to take an area and list the trends of corner shops, pubs, parades and filling stations over the years. Thanks for yet another intriguing blog DG.
Herbof | 02.07.21 - 8:38 a.m. | #
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The near-complete Royal Wharf development, upstream from the Thames Barrier, will have 3400 homes and is due to have a population approaching 10,000.
It's been built with one primary school, one pub, one convenience store and one pharmacy, and currently has three coffee shops.
As a densely-packed area with a young demographic, its ratios are a lot higher than suggested in today's post.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.07.21 - 8:53 a.m. | #
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Every time I visited my local dispensing chemist (a small branch of Boots) it seemed like the majority of the catchment had beaten me to it judging by the speed of service offered. Get my meds by post now, much quicker from ordering prescription to receipt of pills.
NPIan | 02.07.21 - 9:12 a.m. | #
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It's not only corner shops that have changed use, E3 used to have over 50+ pubs.
KenF | 02.07.21 - 9:18 a.m. | #
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Excellent stuff DG.
It's one of those subjects that I regularly think about, but have never bothered to research any further.
Thanks for doing the work and the sums!!
MikeK | 02.07.21 - 9:21 a.m. | #
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"Royal Wharf Development... As a densely-packed area with a young demographic, its ratios are a lot higher than suggested in today's post."
I-Spy Developer Dirty Dealing.
Deals done with LAs relating to S106 agreements, CiLs... so many ways for developers to avoid paying what should be paid for accompanying infrastructure.
Alternatively, a development aimed at singles/sharers or what were once called 'dinkys', who will move out to less urban parts if/when they have kids, and who will socialise after work in the areas they work? And then along came covid which completely changed the need for city-centre working, probably forever.
Blue Witch | Homepage | 02.07.21 - 9:43 a.m. | #
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This is a fascinating sort of thing to think about-- I'm going to have a poke around in the university library and see if/how others have looked at this.
What about eg. garages? Presumably there's an inner-outer suburb thing here?
James | 02.07.21 - 10:58 a.m. | #
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How many cars does it need to support a service station. I asked myself this the other day when running low on petrol and once again it hit me how few little local petrol stations there are. I'm as guilty as everyone else, heading to a local Tesco or Asda for cheaper fuel.
Caroline | 02.07.21 - 1:26 p.m. | #
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Pubs had been closing at an alarming rate pre-pandemic.
In the village where I live now, only Google Street View can tell there used to be 3 pubs where there's something else today. Now there is only one decent, classic style pub in a neighbourhood where there were at least four.
The population might have shrunk, but not by 75%.
Greg S | 02.07.21 - 1:46 p.m. | #
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From an IW perspective I can confirm that establishing pharmacies is not purely a commercial issue. A couple of years back a retailer applied to open a pharmacy in a village with a GP surgery - the villagers were keen as they had to leave the village following their GP visit to fetch any prescription. But the NHS commissioners refused - and not long after the GP practice itself was closed down.
Schools are also complicated, as any proposal to close one sparks fierce controversy. Sometimes village schools are merged, so what looks on the face of it like a village school, is in fact merely a "site" within a larger federal school. Such federations themselves are also ferociously opposed, such a campaign of opposition is underway here at present.
Interesting we are so well-provided-for with pubs.... the number is an awful lot smaller than in days gone by!
cau1khead | 02.07.21 - 1:49 p.m. | #
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I suspect barbers and hairdressers are also well suited to this kind of analysis.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.07.21 - 1:51 p.m. | #
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Looking forward to HP Food & Wine opening up a coffee hatch soon.
Gunnersaurus | 02.07.21 - 2:36 p.m. | #
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currently spending my days working in Croxley Green, changed a lot but still very pleasant.
Johnny C | 02.07.21 - 8:51 p.m. | #
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One your most interesting posts. Got me thinking.
Sally Hirst | 05.07.21 - 12:36 a.m. | #
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Found this post thought-provoking. I live in a medium sized city within commuting distance of a large metropolitan area. After a building moratorium of several years due to sewer problems, we have been experiencing an influx of new residents.
I’m considering making a count of different types of shops etc. to establish a starting point for the ways our community has changed. I’ve lived here for almost 30 years, so should be able to figure out what was here before the influx.
Sarah | 26.07.21 - 2:05 a.m. | #
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