please empty your brain below
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Election predictions above, please.
General comments here, thanks.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 06.09.22 - 7:00 a.m. | #
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How long will Truss last, given her weak support in the parliamentary Conservative party?
Your question was asked just before Christmas re: "this time next year" so maybe a December review will be in order.
Frank F | 06.09.22 - 7:23 a.m. | #
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Can't believe I missed that one from last year!
Will we likely see an election sooner than 2024/25, as many here and elsewhere think is possible? I certainly would be prepared to put a small amount of cold hard cash on it down at the bookies.
Jonathan | 06.09.22 - 8:17 a.m. | #
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I picked the outcome I want but also the one I expect...
steve | 06.09.22 - 8:46 a.m. | #
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In my previous prediction, I BADLY got wrong the electoral attractiveness of Jeremy Hunt, due to him not being in the government during the pandemic! It turned out that Liz Truss was able to slightly play the "Covid outsider" card, despite being in the cabinet.
Mikey C | 06.09.22 - 8:53 a.m. | #
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Politics is reflecting the climate, less predictable and more unstable with every passing year, no month, alright week. Scottish Independence, cosplay Thatcher's winter of discontent, US mid-terms & Putin could all have a direct bearing on the date and outcome. Never been harder to forecast. The only certainty is we will look back on this period as the good times.
JonF | 06.09.22 - 9:09 a.m. | #
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You seem very confident that Truss will last 4 months. Maybe she will call an early election and your first poll will need revising.
Ian | 06.09.22 - 9:11 a.m. | #
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I doubt that anyone would have predicted a prime minister being appointed in Scotland.
Kev | 06.09.22 - 9:30 a.m. | #
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Agree with JonF.
Politicians say what voters want to hear and voters lap it up - aided and abetted by the media pushing their favourite to the front.
These days all it seems a party needs is a silly 3-word slogan to thump out at every opportunity and job's done!
Cornish Cockney | 06.09.22 - 10:31 a.m. | #
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Labour without doubt.
Andrew | Homepage | 06.09.22 - 1:24 p.m. | #
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Still think decent chance of election this year: 3 options really for Truss atm
1. Have election as 5 year limit approaches, likely very unpopular administration during massive recession.
2. Snap GE and scrape majority, reset clock so next GE in 2027 gives decent chance of win next time.
3. Snap GE and lose, give Labour party a hospital pass knowing they'll likely have to rely on other parties (Inc SNP) for support. Pick up pieces in 5 years time.
2 and 3 preferable to 1.
Westerleigh Junction | 06.09.22 - 1:33 p.m. | #
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China's endorsement of Sunak is probably a deciding factor (although not "the") for Truss's victory.
Patrickov | 06.09.22 - 1:58 p.m. | #
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Labour without a majority, but only if they can unite behind someone who can outshine the iron weathercock.
Carl | 06.09.22 - 3:59 p.m. | #
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Thanks for the landslide of votes.
I see we have a huge majority for no majority.
diamond geezer | Homepage | 06.09.22 - 11:55 p.m. | #
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I'm expecting a Lab led govt of some description, possibly with a small majority of no more than 20 (but given the amount of seats needed maybe less or a minority one). Coalition seems unlikely, although I wouldn't balk at it personally. As long as it's not the Tories.
Steve R | 07.09.22 - 5:37 p.m. | #
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No majority, Labour PM: 52%
Labour majority: 20%
Tory majority: 18%
No majority, Tory PM: 10%
i.e. Labour 72%, Tory 28%
We'll see...
diamond geezer | Homepage | 14.09.22 - 7:53 a.m. | #
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I think I can safely predict a Labour majority now.
Sykobee | 07.10.22 - 5:19 p.m. | #
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