please empty your brain below

I'm going to be the first to admit to having googled how to calculate a majority, gotten confused, and subsequently just bashed together a number that seems about right
General election result - hung Parliament, no overall majority for Conservities.
Think Tories will comfortably get above 100 seats, maybe 115-120ish? Hope not
Lib Dems will do surprisingly well, 50 seats minimum
Reform 2 seats, same as Greens
Otherwise Labour will get historically large majority. Scotland, Wales, Red Wall all back to Lab.+220
Turnout slightly below average.
Lab might even win with slightly less total votes than corbyn got.

I will be wrong about all of this, and the pollsters will be embarrassed
When I said 172 in the top box, I expect the true effective number to be 172 + Corbyn + Vaz.
I'm quietly screaming "Pick an even number!" every time someone picks an odd number.
I am guessing 140 lab majority, will be interesting to see the amount and effect of tactical voting
It pains me to pick even numbers.
Conservatives to be left with somewhere between 74-136 seats, Lib Dems to win between 56 and 74 seats,

Labour to lose one seat-- in Bristol. Others where main battle is Labour vs independents-- too close to call--Sheffield Hallam is only main Labour/Lib Dem marginal, again not sure.

Conservatives to lose even in safer seats, perhaps. Bigger Conservative names to lose.

London--three or four Conservatives seats remaining. All the rest to Labour, four or so to Lib Dems, potential for Labour to just about win in one or perhaps two of the remaining suspected Conservative winning seats (Chelsea & Fulham and/or Orpington).
Can someone explain why it must be an even number?

dg writes: X-(650-X) = 2X-650 = 2(X-325)
I've chosen 90 because Starmer is predicted to get a lower share of vote than Corbyn did in 2017 - if the Tories were in any way competent they would win this election, perhaps those picking lower numbers (40-60) will be closer to the true majority.
Strongly suspect that I'll end up in one of the remaining Tory London seats (with it being retained with <30% of the vote in a horrific 3-way marginal scenario) - local Conservative supporters with heroic attempts to get the GTTO vote to swing behind Lab rather than Lib
First 100 guesses now in, with an average of 177 and a range of 42-375 (sorry for odd numbers).

166 and 178 both guessed three times.

18% guessed an odd number!
As context, largest majorities to date:

492 - 1931 National Government
209 - 1924 Conservatives
179 - 1997 Labour
The majority will be in the 250 ballpark.
I am rueing picking an odd number, not having completely read the instructions. Sorry. Please fell free to make my 211 a 212.

I do like a bit of audience participation on this site
If some party gets to exactly 325 seats, doesn't the existence of the non-partisan Speaker mean they have a majority of 1 in practice even if 0 in theory? There’s an extent to which all sufficiently small (non-“working”) majorities are very hand-wavey in reality.
I'm guessing that it must be an even number either for the same reason that the majority falls by two for every single bi-election defeat, or because 650 is an even number.

It seems counter-intuitive to me that there cannot be a theoretical posssibility of 1, and therefore by extension any other odd number below a certain limit.
Every even number between 170 and 230 has been picked at least once.
Theoretical maximum is 614, as Labour never field candidates in the 18 seats in Northern Ireland.
The majority has to have the same parity as the total number of seats. 350 now, but the 1924 and 1997 majorities quoted earlier must have been in a parliament with an odd number of seats.
I’m going to roll my comment at 12:45 back slightly - looking at the conversation five years ago, looks like I’m not taking into account the fact that the Deputy Speakers don’t vote, as well as the Speaker as such. This raises a few further questions in turn which I shall attempt to research first.
I put 77 to hedge my bets between 76 and 78!

I am currently on holiday in Canada so am going to watch the results come in a more reasonable hour of the day, having got sister-in-law to be my proxy vote..
I still don't get the even number thing. I guess 'majority' means something different from what I thought.

My understanding until today: If there are 650 seats, the party with 326 seats has a majority of 1. 327 seats gives a majority of 2, 328 is a majority of 3, etc. Where have I gone wrong?
A majority is 'over everyone else', not just over the halfway point.

If you have 326, everyone else only has 324.
That explains it! Thanks dg.
Between 120 and 260, the only even numbers left are 124, 146, 158 and 240.
240 majority to Labour.

Also, Greg Hands to lose his seat, and Tories to end up with no London MPs.
It’s never as big a majority as people think it will be.
158
I hate maffs! Still not sure what is meant by a majority, if not seats gains over the halfway mark.

I went with what DG said about the Conservative majority being 80 in 2019, flipped in the other direction - and added a few for luck! :D
The majority should be an odd number because the Speaker ought to excluded.
I did take out The Speaker and Sinn Féin in my calculations, which is my fault for making assumptions. Plus it doesn't matter because my prediction was wrong anyway.
The final majority is 174.

Thanks for your massive number of guesses!

The average was 182.
Half the guesses were between 140 and 220.
So a really good collective prediction.

Congratulations to Alex (174) and Tim (174).










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