please empty your brain below
an excellent post DG. Fascinating read.

First reader | 19.11.18 - 7:00 a.m. | #

The high street has been slow to adapt to changing work patterns. Shops that open 9-5 are no use to the working population who make up a higher proportion of the population than before. Online sales are highest in the evening during the week and high street on Saturdays. A business model which requires a shop to be staffed 6-7 days a week but that only sees a reasonable number of people on one of them is not going to survive. High streets that survive tend to be ones where there are also a lot of people working nearby and or in areas with high ethnic populations whose needs are not so well catered for by mainstream retail.

| 19.11.18 - 7:23 a.m. | #

... and even internet cafes have gone.

dg writes: Apart from the one in Downham, obviously.

There is also a difference between owning a shop and renting it, my last local shops survived until the owners retired, but no one could realistically run the same business from there now, with modern overheads, but most (all) of the bankruptcies have been because some fly by night investor has bought the company, sold all the properties, trousered loads of cash, then cleared off, saddling the retail arm with crippling bills they could never pay, and/or they were stuffed by pension costs.

And don't forget the supermarkets, people want convenience, we have voted with our money.

Still Anon | 19.11.18 - 7:32 a.m. | #

There are several other kinds of shop that will survive. The ones where you need expert guidance to make a buying decision (note to retailers: you actually have to employ experts to fit into this category, not people on minimum wage who have been through a two-day training programme). The ones that sell stuff that’s too cheap and bulky for it to be cost-effective to deliver. The ones that cater to impulse purchases. The ones where you want to physically examine the merchandise before buying.

Mike Scott | 19.11.18 - 7:36 a.m. | #

the trouble with shops is you have to schlep all the way there, to find out their range is crap, and you have to deal with the general public getting in your way and half-witted slack-jawed sales assistants. it takes hours and just frustrates you.

bert | 19.11.18 - 7:42 a.m. | #

A further problem with shops is that often they might as well be an online store. Could I look at the product in the box? No, sir. We can't open the packaging otherwise we can't sell it as new.

Often the staff now know less about the product you want to purchase than can be gleaned from a website with a convenient 'buy' button on the same page. The great irony is that by going to an online store you actually have more purchase rights than dealing face-to-face with your local store.

Another factor is that the world wide web makes you realise that you can often order the exact item you want in the colour you want rather than just accept what a shop has in stock and make do with that.

Pedantic of Purley | 19.11.18 - 7:58 a.m. | #

"There are several other kinds of shop that will survive... The ones that sell stuff that’s too cheap and bulky for it to be cost-effective to deliver."

Large senders don't pay delivery companies for the weight or size of individual parcels, they pay per item sent.

Blue Witch | 19.11.18 - 8:14 a.m. | #

Only two empty shops in all of that lot? Wow! They are doing well for a suburban retail parade.

Several around where I live, are signposted as "Local Shops" when all that's left is a newsagent/off-licence. Even the takeaway no longer survives.

On a more positive note, the local Starbucks shutdown two weeks ago...

Southern Heights (Light Railway) | 19.11.18 - 8:37 a.m. | #

Here in York my local parade of shops both survives and thrives. Local independents where you get to know the owners and shop assistants, often other customers also.

The main City shopping street, Coney Street, is only a 10 minute walk away but is a very different story. There is a large out of town mall with huge car parks which has not helped. we don't help ourselves either by using such places.

Daniel Rust | 19.11.18 - 8:48 a.m. | #

Difficult to think that Phillip Green and Mike Ashley are doing anything to help. I would not want to work for them and would hate to be in the position where there is little viable alternative.

Daniel Rust | 19.11.18 - 8:51 a.m. | #

There won't be any public libraries in the street scene soon.

B | 19.11.18 - 9:17 a.m. | #

Perhaps the one in Downham is owned rather than rented, our local Internet Cafe vanished just as broadband started to become available, since then its been a copying/printing place ('till all the nearby offices were converted into flats) and is currently a pawn shop.

Still Anon | 19.11.18 - 9:30 a.m. | #

I'm going to suggest that Downham isn't particularly representative. Two empty shops, two barbers, only three bookies (though they'll be closing a lot of locations soon), an internet cafe. Not even one bank. I know they're closing branches, but most High Streets can manage one.

Card shop and internet for the chopping block soonest, I'd guess. Takeaways and cafes fail often, but are usually replaced with another takeaway or cafe. I can't imagine laundrettes are long for this world, either.

dg writes: Downham's last bank was a Barclays, which closed several years ago and is now a bookies.

Chz | 19.11.18 - 9:56 a.m. | #

My local high street has a similar mix but also contains a library that managed to survive the 40% borough-wide loss a few years ago.
Otherwise, every other shop seems to be either a bookies, cafe, fast food or convenience store - the ones with all the fruit & veg spilling onto the pavement.
I must admit it is rather convenient though.

For clothing /bigger branches I have to go to the 2 shopping centres in the town centre 2 miles away.

Cornish Cockney | 19.11.18 - 10:06 a.m. | #

*Shops never have the clothes you want in your size*

Neither does the f***ing internet (if you are female).

None | 19.11.18 - 10:27 a.m. | #

I have noticed a steep decline in the relative benefit of physical shopping over the last year or so.

As it has become more risky for retailers to keep a large selection of products on site, they have chosen stock fewer items. Eventually, there is a tipping point, where they just don’t have enough stuff to make it worth travelling to buy.

Recently I needed a new cycling jacket - something hi-viz, waterproof etc for commuting in. I wanted to try one on before I bought it, and I work close to several large cycling shops (although I don’t need to use them terribly often) so I duly did the rounds over a couple of lunchtimes.

Blimey, even the “flagship” stores had hardly anything to show me. Maybe one or two makes / models in my size (an unflashy M), when there are literally hundreds of options out there. I just couldn’t find anything I wanted to buy - so of course I went online instead.

Multiply that across thousands of potential purchases and it’s an inescapable downward spiral.

Having said that, my local shopping street in Hackney seems to be very vibrant with new businesses opening up and the range of stuff available - mostly food & drink related but with a few quirkier places - far better than it was, say, 10 years ago.

CJS | 19.11.18 - 10:35 a.m. | #

Croydon has been waiting patiently for a Westfield shopping centre to be built for several years now - still no indication of when building work will commence, and the old Whitgift Centre is slowly losing shops and getting tattier every day. I don't think this Westfield will ever be built - which shops would be left to fill it?

I agree with None: clothes shopping for women of non-fashionable size is a nightmare both on the high street and on-line, because retailers don't care about us.

Margaret | 19.11.18 - 10:57 a.m. | #

I am idly curious how many physical shops wouldn't be in business if not for the 'and while you're here' effect - i.e. getting shoppers who are there for X specific things to also impulsively pick up additional items because they're on sale, or attractively packaged, or 'limited edition'. I see that effect less in online shopping, although it does still exist.

Ben | 19.11.18 - 11:00 a.m. | #

Maybe what DG said is the reason I didn't find much difference between Croydon town centre, Brighton Churchill Square / North Street, Cambridge Market (the University press excluded), and Soho / Oxford Street.

Patrickov | 19.11.18 - 11:47 a.m. | #

The obvious solution is a sort of combination of the social space / food & drink outlet and online retailer. Sort of like putting a Starbucks with seating in a branch of Argos. iPads chained to the table, order your items, wait with a latte, then the Argos gnome seeks you out with your goods.

Uncle Audrey | 19.11.18 - 11:47 a.m. | #

i was walking down my local (somewhat run down) London high street yesterday - and realised that we've now got about half a dozen little restaurants, as well as a couple of coffee shops, at least one nail bar, and a Thai massage parlour (why does parlour sound so dodgy) !

it really is all about the experience !!

although off licences seem to be making a minor comeback - maybe for impulse / last minute purchases.

ADS | 19.11.18 - 12:17 p.m. | #

"Argos gnome" "half-witted slack-jawed sales assistants". I suspect these comments say more about the commenter than the people they describe.

JohnC | 19.11.18 - 12:22 p.m. | #

JohnC - yes, and sadly retail and hospitality are often the only possible employment options for young people today.

Antipodean | 19.11.18 - 12:40 p.m. | #

Note how many High Street shops are now dependent on London's immigrant communities, whether as customers or owners. What impact will Brexit have?

Ian Brooker | 19.11.18 - 12:47 p.m. | #

Nobody has yet mentioned the effect of shoplifting on the profitability of the High Street shops.

Can anyone quote any actual figures?

Temp | 19.11.18 - 12:54 p.m. | #

Survivors:-
car wash - difficult to do online.
beauty salon - for the reasons DG gives.
dentist - likewise.
locksmith - by then most locks may be electronic, but they will still go wrong sometimes.
cafe
hairdresser
charity shop
barbers
optician

Bob L-S | 19.11.18 - 2:10 p.m. | #

A lot of clothes shops will remain, as most tend to try on and feel what they're buying. However, the trend is more looking towards high-end, boutique and big-name brands, as most of the middle to upper class are willing to travel and pay for the experience.

Anon12 | 19.11.18 - 2:29 p.m. | #

It's interesting to look back say 10 years and notice how disruptive internet technology has become to the established retail scene. The current wisdom is that the 'high street is dead' - for many of the reasons identified in this post. Much of the change is predicated on affordable transportation allowing for home delivery of cheap imported goods. If the cheap imports become unsustainable then the model is endangered. If our addiction to the throwaway economy is cured or even reduced then the massive online market for all sorts of c**p disappears. If the vulnerabilities in internet infrastructure are fully exploited by the malign we're sunk.

It all feels very uncertain given the continuing ripples from 2008. Could we be one or two steps away from a return to something like pre-industrial townscapes; local shops providing essential services only. A nation of shopkeepers once again.

drD | 19.11.18 - 2:40 p.m. | #

Survivors : well-conceived malls (I remember a previous post on this blog on Westfield) and online. High-street convenience local shops and services. Everything else will go.

Of course , there will be adaptations. Oxford St and Regent St are in effect well-conceived malls.

French reader | 19.11.18 - 2:43 p.m. | #

in my local high street (outer London) we've lost a butcher, greengrocer, building society branch, florist, shoe shop, sweet shop, Indian restaurant, hardware shop and others I can't remember. Replacements include a tattooist, a beauty salon featuring Tattoo Removal, a Chinese medicine specialist, a music shop, an ice cream parlour, a vape shop, and a national chain coffee bar. It shows a definite shift to services or shops offering niche products, which is probably typical of national trends. But the ex-Woolworths premises are now a very successful Turkish supermarket with greengrocery much cheaper than in Sainsbury's.

amber | 19.11.18 - 2:54 p.m. | #

Funnily enough, I expect the cobblers will almost certainly still be around in 20 years.

Anon | 19.11.18 - 3:01 p.m. | #

will also be interesting to see if there's a significant decrease in Bookmakers once the "crack cocaine of gambling" is removed in April 2019

ADS | Homepage | 19.11.18 - 3:55 p.m. | #

Slightly odd that DG's list starts with milk when that was the item delivered most often when I was small.

Here in N16, one of my locals has just been 'cash free' yet the small grocery stores still insist on a £5 minimum for cards. It may not be entirely their fault they are not moving with the times on this one, but it just adds to the hassle.

PT | 19.11.18 - 8:36 p.m. | #

@pt, is there some reason the thinnest of margins should be reduced further by giving card providers 1%+ of every transaction because it is inconvenient for the banks & you? Using cards costs...even if you don't see it. Cash has the same value to you and the retailer...and everyone else, come to that. We need to be very careful of losing sight of what cash is and what it represents.

B | 19.11.18 - 10:17 p.m. | #

I think that the survivors here will include the betting and pawn shops.

Jo W | 20.11.18 - 8:10 a.m. | #

B, I sort of agree however it's less than 1% of a relatively small sum and cash handling isn't free to the retailer either. There are other costs I don't see such as rates and other overheads, I guess they are all in the price points. Given the prevalence of contactless now, eg coffee shops, it seems to be a strong customer preference not just me. I'm only saying some shops could respond to that.

PT | 20.11.18 - 8:28 p.m. | #

The high street of the future will change, considerably.

I believe, although I could be very wrong, that all of the following will either have mass store closures, or go into administration, in some cases severe closures then administration:

WHSmith
Marks & Spencer
Waitrose & Partners
John Lewis & Partners
Next
Sainsbury's
Asda
Debenhams
House of Fraser
HMV
Booths (large chain in North, like Waitrose of the North)

All of these items, aside from the clothes, can be purchased online.

Food will survive, obviously. Note how my generation still live with parents, or rent. Many of those shops sell big homeware/furniture ranges. If you live at home or rent, you can't purchase those items.

What's the future? As others have mentioned, all the items/services that cannot be obtained online. Also in terms of closures, I believe that pubs will further shrink, hundreds/thousands fewer across the UK.

Jonathan | 20.11.18 - 9:58 p.m. | #

"and cash handling isn't free to the retailer either"

Everyone seems to forget that when they talk about card charges. Go on, look up a Barclays Business account and see what they charge you for. There are several options, and in some of them card payments are cheaper than handling cash. (though it's all still a glorious rip-off)

Chz | 21.11.18 - 9:27 a.m. | #

Bespoke Shopping malls are probably the future of the 'high street' shopping experience. The new Coal-Drop Yard Shopping Center at Kings Cross being a good example.

Philip Sherwin | 27.11.18 - 12:31 p.m. | #











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