dg comments

please empty your brain below

That's really thought-provoking - thanks. I'd have put myself as a very fortunate A1i - though as we're of an age dg, perhaps I should reconsider!

Sarah | Homepage | 05.05.20 - 7:07 a.m. | #

This is excellent in its simplicity and visual interpretation. It turns out we're B1i cube-mates, on your diagram.

Waterhouse | 05.05.20 - 7:19 a.m. | #

Fair enough - but how many of us might be OK personally, but may well lose close relatives, or from a financial viewpoint might be fine now, but how much pain, and for how long, can those finances take?

Still Anon | 05.05.20 - 7:43 a.m. | #

Interesting analysis, especially as I am also a 55 year old B1. I'll class myself as ii even though the dependent relative lives elsewhere.

DavidC | 05.05.20 - 8:17 a.m. | #

Another layer could be the regional 'score' of victims, although, of course, this is historical rather than predictive.

I am C1ii, but live in Cornwall with one of the lowest scores of deaths from Covid19.

Petras409 | 05.05.20 - 8:20 a.m. | #

Thanks DG, a wonderfully clear and thoughtful analysis. Viewing the 3D diagram and thinking about the situation for others, and not just those in our own areas, is a great help in coming to terms with reality. Also, this helps me think more clearly about the changing situation as time goes by, how anyone might migrate from box to box. I thought this might make a good reminder for politicians, but it could be beyond the capacity of many of them to consider your diagram in 4D, and it is rational science and not (really) art. It might be a great help if they did though. Maybe they only rely on advisors.

Herbof | 05.05.20 - 8:45 a.m. | #

Yay, a DG Covid post: always good.

A fairly easygoing B2i here, only needing to go into the office periodically to pick up post and check the server. It's on these pedal propelled outings that I feel most vulnerable. Even though the roads are so much quieter, pedestrians still step out in front without looking in time, and distancing from people on the kerbside is difficult when there is a bus next to you.

There have been some interesting 'noises' about encouraging more people to cycle when more businesses open up, to keep more space on the tube and buses, but it's not as simple as that. The 2m rule doesn't work when people are on bikes. I feel more comfortable at 20m behind the person in front, and am very relieved to be able stay firmly at home after these trips.

NickW | Homepage | 05.05.20 - 8:59 a.m. | #

Hi DG, Great post, it turns out that I'm your neighbour, but on the wrong side (C1i), but like you say all things are fluid and my circumstances could get worse, they most certainly won't get better!

Kevin Too | 05.05.20 - 9:05 a.m. | #

Young and financially stable but a shared household with no outdoor space ... is starting to become a challenge, even with regular walks to Victoria Park.
Great diagram DG!

James Scantlebury | 05.05.20 - 9:08 a.m. | #

I think I am an A1ii. But that could change.

You could add a fourth dimension by having say three options in each box of the 3x3x3 cube, but taking a “slice” in the fourth dimension, or indeed rotating the hypercube about an axis in that dimension, but this would be ridiculously hard to imagine.

Andrew | 05.05.20 - 9:11 a.m. | #

Firmly in the A1i category and feel very fortunate to be there. My main concern is my partner is 8.5 months pregnant and I’m not sure if/for how long I’ll be able to by her side during birth.

I can definitely feel my mental health struggling so very much feel for those in more precarious and anxious situations than me.

Flare | 05.05.20 - 9:13 a.m. | #

A1ii - mid 30s, still employed but with a 9 month old and nursery shut

Boredom is certainly not a risk, burnout might be!

Feeling very lucky that the situation didn't strike ~10 months ago when it would have been so much harder, but equally jealous of how much easier it would have been if it had hit 2 years ago.

TomH | 05.05.20 - 9:13 a.m. | #

Whichever of the 27 cubes you’re in, there are 6 cubes you share two characteristics with, 12 cubes you share one characteristic with and 8 cubes you share no characteristics with.

diamond geezer | Homepage | 05.05.20 - 9:17 a.m. | #

You would need a fourth dimension, as a minimum, for me. In my 70s (bad); as far as I know, no risky underlying conditions (good); living alone so used to necessary self-isolation (ok); comfortable pension, not under threat as far as I know, but anyway backed up by about 5 years worth of annual spend as savings (good) BUT April was scheduled for knee surgery, now postponed indefinitely, so generally immobile and in a great deal of pain permanently (very bad but obviously nowhere near as bad as severe Covid-19). I do feel the knock-on health consequences are not getting much of an airing unless the subject comes up when the statisticians start talking about 'excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19'.

J. | 05.05.20 - 9:22 a.m. | #

The UK government seems to be taking advantage of the situation to rid the country of the C's and the 3's:

+ Anyone in a care home is receiving no help at all.

+ The hospitals are only treating Covid cases so all the other killer diseases which filled the beds before the virus will be running (un-reportedly) rampant.

+ No mention of a pay rise for NHS staff - claps don't pay the rent.

+ Universal credit and benefits are still not enough to keep people from becoming homeless or needing schools to feed children.

But, hey, Natural Selection is a perfectly good system, isn't it?

JoanP | 05.05.20 - 9:25 a.m. | #

Excellent analysis DG!
Another multi dimensional graphic I'd like to see is a balanced scorecard showing, along with the Covid measures, economic indicators, missed operations, mental health issues, domestic violence etc etc.
The trouble is that we only see the Covid measures presented in detail.

Andy Riley | 05.05.20 - 9:29 a.m. | #

I am in a good situation and would classify myself as A1, but the third factor gives me some clue why the virus has hit Britain fairly hard.

When I lived in the British capital I shared a house with 6 people, and had a 20 minute tube commute in cattle truck conditions.

Now I live in the German capital, doing the same job for roughly the same amount, I have my own flat and should I need to go to the office I can cycle there in 20 minutes on quiet roads.

Jonathan P | 05.05.20 - 9:46 a.m. | #

About an A/1.5/ii - but very aware that this could quickly become B/2.75/iii with only a small turn of fate.

R | 05.05.20 - 10:08 a.m. | #

I'm putting myself into C1i due to being obese (but otherwise healthy) and just the wrong side of fifty.

I'm personally not planning on going back to work anytime soon, public transport could be a killer. I can work from home for the forseeable future but I'm missing pubs and restaurants. I suspect I'm going to wait a couple of months after shutdown ends to do much more than getting a weekly shop.

Best thing I've done is buying a nice chair for my home office.

Peter Ibbotson | 05.05.20 - 10:12 a.m. | #

9 million deaths every year as a result of poverty causing hunger and hunger-related diseases.
4 million deaths every year as a result of exposure to ambient (outdoor) air pollution.
1.25 million road deaths every year.
0.25 million deaths (to date) in one year due to corona virus.
? million deaths caused by lockdown.

Tony | 05.05.20 - 10:25 a.m. | #

Rephrasing your last sentence, we are all in this together but we are not all in the same boat.

Andrew | Homepage | 05.05.20 - 10:27 a.m. | #

I'm in the same cube as you DG but well aware of uncertainty as any of these could change. I am particularly worried about the situation element despite currently being an (i). If anything unexpected should affect my ability to care for myself, particularly in a rural area, living alone could become a big problem rather than an benefit.

One great advantage we seem to have in common is no longer being reliant on having a job.

kev | 05.05.20 - 10:34 a.m. | #

"Rephrasing your last sentence, we are all in this together but we are not all in the same boat." Or if we are all in the same boat as the politicians claim, some are in first class but many are in steerage.

JohnC | 05.05.20 - 10:53 a.m. | #

Excellent analysis.

How to define financial stability is a whole topic in itself: it isn't a simple matter of income, or of wealth. Dickens pointed out one important factor in his famous quote from the mouth of Mr Micawber about the difference between income and expenditure. There is also the effect of uncertainties. And regarding debt, some people may be less anxious if they have one big debt rather than a lot of small ones, while others prefer to see what appear to be manageable sums owing, even though there are more of them.

Bob L-S | 05.05.20 - 11:35 a.m. | #

I would like to think of myself as a A1i but at 71 tomorrow the Government would probably put me as a marginal C1i. But there are loads of other categories - how far have you been taken in by the media project fear being one, in which I am highly sceptical. I follow the rules as best I can but am not afraid to go out. And the boredom and loneliness factor, sometimes very high here.

davews | 05.05.20 - 12:17 p.m. | #

Another A1i here, and feeling very fortunate to be so. We have a stable income and are spending less than usual in lockdown for obvious reasons.

I'm particularly concerned about those in less financially secure situations. There's a growing opinion in the media for ending the lockdown to "restart the economy", but I expect many of the people who would be forced out of lockdown for financial reasons will find their previous job doesn't exist any more.

Anybody who is financially stable is going to continue to stay indoors after restrictions are lifted. Even as an A I won't be rushing back to parks, shops, pubs, restaurants, etc, and Bs and Cs will be even more cautious. All the classifications in DGs post are interdependent and if one (or more) disappear then there will be consequences for all the others.

The media talks like the virus has disappeared, but in reality we're just back where we were in February with better testing and an expanded health service. The virus can still kill you should you catch it, whatever your age or medical history.

Rob | 05.05.20 - 1:19 p.m. | #

... and we haven't really got an expanded health service relative to February. How could we possibly have? You can't train people in that time. We may have a bit more hardware and premises, mostly temporary. There have also been shifts away from "less urgent" departments, but that is just postponing things.

Malcolm | 05.05.20 - 1:35 p.m. | #

Rob - hear hear!
Especially as the sort of places the young adults with their disposable income like to frequent will, by definition, be the last places to open.
The phrase "all dressed up with no place to go" comes to mind!

Cornish Cockney | 05.05.20 - 2:20 p.m. | #

It is literally less than a handful of years since I visited my doc with symptoms that turned out to be connected to a potentially terminal condition had I not been operated on. If that year had been this year, COVID-19 lockdown would have been responsible for my death. Although currently healthy, I am doubtful of being categorised in either of the well or sort-of well sectors. Thus, according to your cube, I'm in cell C3i. I may have wanted to be a hermit in my youth, I've now changed my mind.

B | 05.05.20 - 2:35 p.m. | #

I hope this analysis gets passed on to the SAGE modellers, if they haven't done the same thing already. They can probably put some estimated population numbers/percentages in each cube to suggest where most effort should be directed. I guess it should be somewhere towards the triply dark red top back right-hand corner.

As others have suggested, those of us comfortable and secure towards the front bottom left cube will need a lot of persuading to venture out, which we need to do to start supporting the economy again by spending our money on all those things we've managed without. It will be particularly difficult if we don't believe it's really as safe as the government might try to suggest, bearing in mind their doubtful record for accuracy and honesty.

Of course all these subdivisions in society existed well before Coronavirus and the government didn't seem too concerned about them then.

ActonMan | 05.05.20 - 2:41 p.m. | #

AM said: where most effort should be directed. I guess it should be somewhere towards the triply dark red top back right-hand corner.

But it won't be, will it?
Natural selection will eliminate that costly 'problem' cell for the economy.

I suspect they'll be looking at the future taxpaying potential (income and VAT etc) cf potential cost to the economy (healthcare, benefits etc etc) of each cell type when targetting.

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.

Blue Witch | Homepage | 05.05.20 - 3:28 p.m. | #

You're right Blue Witch as far as the Conservatives are concerned if it doesn't make a profit it's not worth keeping or preserving.

Tones | 05.05.20 - 3:52 p.m. | #

Yes Tones - and the sad thing is that so many of those really suffering now (particularly the sole trader self-employed -often tradesmen, and those working their socks off, and putting themselves in daily danger, as care staff or cleaners, for minimum wage) and those from less well off areas actually voted for them.

80 seat majority and 4.5 years to go.

I guess you can say that you get what you vote for, and if turkeys vote for christmas... well...

Blue Witch | Homepage | 05.05.20 - 4:27 p.m. | #

But will they vote for them again after being put through all this? I fear so, as voters have short memories and might well fall for 'we did our best in difficult circumstances', 'it's time to look to the future', 'we're on the foothills of the sunny uplands', mixed in with 'you can't trust that Keir Starmer - he was once in the same room as Jeremy Corbyn five years ago!'

ActonMan | 05.05.20 - 4:54 p.m. | #

Reckon we're A1i this year, but if it runs into next year's walking season and we can't reopen the B&B we'll be hurting on the financial front.

Location plays a big part. Isolating here in the Upper Dales is easy. The trip to James Cook Hospital in Middlesbrough if needed won't be so easy, 1.5hrs by road and probably a trip by helicopter in a breathing difficulty emergency.

Putters | 05.05.20 - 4:59 p.m. | #

The advantage of focussing even modest financial benefits on the least well off people is they will spend it, helping to refloat the boat. Understood since Roosevelt did it in 1930's US.

Unlike some 2nd home owners managing to legally claim a £10k bung.

MilesT | 05.05.20 - 5:07 p.m. | #

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