please empty your brain below

For better or worse, Boris returns and somehow pulls a rabbit out of his hat versus Starmer
A Tory PM with no majority - DUP calling the shots (again). Probably the worst of all worlds.
There are a lot of shy Tories out there.
I would love to say Labour would do better, but 2 years is a long time in politics and with the mainstream media behind the Tories I think they'll claw back some of their lost support.
Most definitely a higher chance of this than 8%
I'll stick with just my choice of option after deleting several drafts going into verbose detail about my reasoning.

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