dg comments

please empty your brain below

Superb analysis. This writing should be the lead article in The (newspaper of choice).

NLW | 10.02.21 - 7:04 a.m. | #

Eloquent and sobering.

'The life chances of millions of pupils and students have been permanently dented' - indeed, but not equally. The gap between rich and poor here will become a chasm, with some people actually doing very nicely out of it.

Sarah | Homepage | 10.02.21 - 7:13 a.m. | #

Cheering!
Superbly written and accurate.
But I see why Boris prefers “it’ll be fine by [insert forthcoming national celebration]”

Thomas | Homepage | 10.02.21 - 7:19 a.m. | #

Excellent synopsis ... totally agree with the comments from NLW

AButler | 10.02.21 - 7:34 a.m. | #

Great article. One thing is for sure, whoever is in power would not have done a better job, just a different one. There is no blueprint for this pandemic and it really is a case of making it up as you go along, but if there are future ones (I hope not) then lessons will have been learnt. Is it better for our leaders to be pessimistic, optimistic or realistic? Probably all three but good luck with getting that right too.

Richard Evans | 10.02.21 - 7:42 a.m. | #

Here here!

Or should that be Hear, hear?

popartist | 10.02.21 - 7:47 a.m. | #

It's worse than that, because the world population has to be vaccinated, and that won't be done for a long while, so any return to normal, in terms of travel, is years away, and the virus will continue to mutate in the meantime.

Potentially, unless you have £1700 to pay for quarantine upon your return, you'll be trapped in the UK, alternatively, once you've vaccinated all vulnerable UK citizens, you then stop bothering about controlling the virus/travel, and just knock-up vaccines as and when required.

Still Anon | 10.02.21 - 7:57 a.m. | #

Too right. I have long been of the opinion that life is just what you did whilst waiting to die. The sooner the better, clearly.

Certainly as a 30 year old I see very little point in diverting resources I could use for other things into a pension, or making any sacrifices for the future. I seriously doubt I will enjoy a retirement that is any way recognisable to todays retirees.

Jonathan | 10.02.21 - 8:05 a.m. | #

Very good article.
Did the cold weather stop your daily walk I wonder.

John | 10.02.21 - 8:09 a.m. | #

The idea that 'lessons will have been learnt' from the pandemic is one that this government trots out regularly; it doesn't seem to be the case.

We ran down the NHS; we ensured that those on low incomes were unprovided for; we handed out juicy contracts to our pals - all this indicates that it will likely be business as usual, because that's the way Tory governments operate - that's the model.

I have no expectation of a more decent society after this (not necessarily the last) pandemic. We will only get a fairer future by working (and voting) for one. And not from this guy running around in hi-vis jackets and white coats, crashing down plastic walls on his chosen yellow vehicle.

Brian | 10.02.21 - 8:25 a.m. | #

We've seen how most governments across the world have done a far better job of managing the pandemic than the current UK government, which hasn't even learnt from its own mistakes. Each of the three lockdowns happened later than it should have, for example. I think plenty of alternative leaders would have done a better job, even Theresa May. Meanwhile countries such as Hong Kong, China, New Zealand and Australia are more or less getting back to normal.

Richard Brennan | 10.02.21 - 8:38 a.m. | #

I have several friends who continue to express strong irritation that the pandemic has impacted their present lives, and continues to jeopardise their future plans. I have on occasion offered contextual and realistic points similar to those in your post, but have been accused of being 'miserable' or 'such of a pessimist'. It seems intelligent folk wanting a return to Oz remain vulnerable to the verbiage of Wizard Johnson and his acolytes.

Frank F | 10.02.21 - 8:50 a.m. | #

Covid deaths per million population:
UK 1762, Norway 107, Australia 35, New Zealand 5, Taiwan 0.4
Of course there are a lot of countries that have not done much better than the UK, but there are also many which have done massively better.

Alan | 10.02.21 - 9:01 a.m. | #

Sobering reading and largely concurs with my assessment of the next 5 years or so...

Is the sun over the yard arm yet?

Southern Heights (Light Railway) | 10.02.21 - 9:06 a.m. | #

How is it that the organisers of Glastonbury were able to make a decision about their event months in advance, and yet our Government keeps on reacting late?

This is where 'hardwired optimism' gets you - a misplaced belief that things will work themselves out for the best and a complete inability to take hard decisions.

Will | 10.02.21 - 9:06 a.m. | #

Sobering, but I'd be very surprised if you didn't turn out to be on the money.

Nico Hogg | 10.02.21 - 9:13 a.m. | #

I think this is a little pessimistic. I think you are absolutely right to say the world has changed forever. Many people are waiting for their lives to restart but their lives are still going, just different.

But having said all that I do think things will look very different in Summer, and very different again next year. For as long as hospitals are full, we have restrictions. If hospitals have room for you, we will have less restrictions. And they will have room if the vaccines work, which they seem to.

Looking further ahead, mRNA vaccines are a global game changer - easily adapted for new strains in weeks.

Global travel as we used to know it is probably out- but will come back in time - although changed. Vaccine passports will be a thing. And people will gladly sign up for them if they want holiday.

So yes, things might look bleaker - but I prefer to see it as things looking different.

Espadrilles | 10.02.21 - 9:14 a.m. | #

Thank you, Private Fraser.

David | 10.02.21 - 9:15 a.m. | #

An excellent analysis, but two contextual comments. I don't recall my parents moaning about the inability of Brits to have a holiday on the Amalfi Coast in the early 40s. Some restrictions on the practicality of foreign travel are not really the end of the world. Secondly, re local authority finances. The BBC1 local news yesterday was full of people moaning and demanding more government (ie our) money, yet my authority has announced an increase of only 1.99%, as it honestly admitted that social care costs were down because of deaths from the virus. Of course there will be significant social and economic changes changes arising but the assets of most currently troubled businesses will still be there, mothballed, because they aren't like nuclear reactors, requiring day in and day out maintenance. I can honestly say I think the last year, stressful as it has been, has been far easier to live with than, say, living through the last world war.

J. | 10.02.21 - 9:19 a.m. | #

My thoughts are more allied with J and Espadrilles.

The virus will clearly be here for a long time, but I imagine we will manage it like seasonal flu - with annual vaccines for the most vulnerable, which will protect against most (but not all) hospitalisations and deaths. Some years the vaccine will match all of the variants, and other years it will do less well.

In terms of the economy, the pursuit of relentless economic growth and unrestrained consumerism was going to have to end soon in any case, as the planet warms, and our natural resources get more limited. I am not sad if flying to Dubai for the weekend, or buying a brand new petrol car every three years, becomes a thing of the past.

Mike on a bike | 10.02.21 - 9:48 a.m. | #

I agree. A thoughtful and measured account. Some good points made in many of the comments, too.

Causing less upset than WW2 is a low bar, but yes in some respects we have just about got over it.

It is just possible that future historians might conclude that, overall, Covid 19 saved lives, by preventing 4 more years of Trump and thereby making the Climate Catastrophe slightly less severe.

Malcolm of Kent | 10.02.21 - 10:03 a.m. | #

Yes, exactly.

But why do the majority of people just not understand this?

I've given up talking to most people I know as their conversation now consists of, "I've had/have a date to have my jab, so I can/will soon be able to get back to normal now."

Blue Witch | Homepage | 10.02.21 - 10:11 a.m. | #

Blue Witch, exasperatingly I find the same. "Once we've all been jabbed, it's back to normal" or worse "I trust what Boris says, not what you say" (my comments being much aligned with DG's). When people question why we have such terrible results and such an inept self-serving government I only have to look around at the (kindly) naive or (more realistically) stupid people who would rather take advice from a mate on Facebook than an expert in virology.

TomH | 10.02.21 - 10:23 a.m. | #

Absolutely spot on - and a view I've held since the initial easing of restrictions last year.

Also, if ever there was a time to put the promises around plans to combat global warming into action - now is it! What a perfect time to set a new, greener model for economic recovery into action!
But, as with all things it's all talk and promises but little action, so it will eventually be business as usual until the point of no return - if we're not already too late.

Cornish Cockney | 10.02.21 - 10:23 a.m. | #

Being 'trapped in the UK' is bad if your home is somewhere else and you can't get to it, but the concept of being 'trapped in the UK' simply by virtue of not being able to take foreign holidays is unhelpful (and even distasteful) hyperbole.

Sarah | 10.02.21 - 10:26 a.m. | #

Excellent piece, thank you.

Rick | 10.02.21 - 10:30 a.m. | #

A great commentary as ever, DG and I love the picture of a "rosy vision" being "dangled"! Not sure there are degrees of impermeability though.

cau1khead | 10.02.21 - 10:34 a.m. | #

Like the Glastonbury organisers, my employer seems better able to give a realistic assessment than the government can. When office-based staff were sent home last March we were told it was very unlikely we'd be back in the office any time in 2020. Turns out they still were being over-optimistic about the government's ability to deal with things.

There was of course a temporary blip last autumn when we were allowed to go back to the office if we wanted to, because they couldn't be seen to be going against the government's "back to work" campaign. That went well...

Andrew S | 10.02.21 - 10:42 a.m. | #

Benefit of hindsight etc, blame others etc, condemn politicians etc, offer no ideas of own etc, use irony for humour etc.

Surbitonian | 10.02.21 - 10:43 a.m. | #

Well said DG.........

As recently, some posts have been about opposites; tomorrow - the bad news!

Dave | 10.02.21 - 10:43 a.m. | #

Christ! That was uplifting. Gonna get the rope out now.

Matt | 10.02.21 - 11:48 a.m. | #

The restrictions will only end when we decide to end them. They will never release us willingly. Vaccines were supposed to be our way out but since the first was authorised the rules have just been made worse.

Crushed commuting never ended for some and can be seen every day at the east end of the Central, District and Jubilee Lines.

Kim | 10.02.21 - 12:23 p.m. | #

On the contrary, Kim, "they" are desperate to remove restrictions and have demonstrably done so on several occasions too early causing things to get worse.

E | 10.02.21 - 12:36 p.m. | #

I read this as a “DG bit” where he’s wilfully pessimistic about everything. Yet every comment above seems to be taking it at face value.

Imagine thinking this dismal island was as good as the world gets.

Graham | 10.02.21 - 12:51 p.m. | #

If DGs analysis is accurate - it looks sensible enough to me - then we might need to get our inner monk on. Cut down possibilities, and eventually small treats (bag of chips) press the same reward buttons as big ones (new Porsche) used to. Well, that's the idea - I find it works a bit, but its not necessarily a way of life for everyone! Now, off to google whether BooHoo sell hair shirts online.

mark addy | 10.02.21 - 1:04 p.m. | #

There are four groups of people who haven’t been vaccinated.

Some people, like me, just haven’t been vaccinated yet; some have started but not finished, and have some immunity; some are unsuitable medically.

Some, however, have said no to the vaccine and this group is likely to become a larger proportion of the unvaccinated population. I question whether they really deserve any protection.

Sprout Eater | 10.02.21 - 1:23 p.m. | #

It feels the pandemic will change our lives yet, not necessarily in ways that we expect.

DG, great writing as always. I'd put a fiver on you 'doing a Johnson' and having the more chipper version in draft for publication tomorrow.

Lux | 10.02.21 - 1:58 p.m. | #

"careless enough to end up in intensive care" - This is victim blaming. Was Captain Tom careless in dying with Covid ?

" Reopening schools uses up so much of our headroom on community transmission" not according to the experts.

" Local councils are in serious financial difficulties " because in many cases, they have increased their expenditure, hiring huge numbers of expensive makework people.

"freedom means friction" as the majority of the world's population find out when they deign to visit the EU. Nevermind, god forbid, they want to trade with it. But who cares for the dusky denizens of the global south.

Gunker | 10.02.21 - 2:02 p.m. | #

Kittens tomorrow, please

Sarah | 10.02.21 - 2:05 p.m. | #

When confronted with such rational doom and gloom, there has to be room for hope and joy. Go with a different DG and seek the kingfisher.

Ken | 10.02.21 - 5:12 p.m. | #

The traumas of the past took time. I was born in 1954 and my mother went into hospital (as you did then) with her food ration book, only to be told - the good news - you've got a healthy child, and you can tear up that book, rationing's over. Rumour has it she was more excited by the second item than the first one. Nine years after WW2 ended.

Martin | 10.02.21 - 5:41 p.m. | #

I agree with most of this, but I think your second paragraph is perhaps overly gloomy. The vaccine doesn't have to be wholly effective (against known and as yet unknown variants), it doesn't have to totally reduce transmission and it doesn't have to be accepted by everyone. So long as we can get, and keep, R below 1.0, the disease will - gradually or rapidly - die out or at least go down to manageable levels.

The history of vaccines suggests that this will happen over at most a few years, and there are virtually no recorded exceptions to that.

Peter | 10.02.21 - 6:27 p.m. | #

From my armchair expert outlook, I see it going a different way. If the vaccine cannot protect us long-term, then the only other way is to expand the healthcare capacity, maybe opening up special Covid units.

We cannot social distance forever. Humans are not built that way.

The mental health toll is already visible now. Violent protests are on the rise (such as in the USA, Netherlands, Switzerland) in part due to Lockdown frustrations, declining mental health and bottled-up rage.

At some point we will have to learn to live with the virus. Perhaps Covid-19 will be a cause of death among the elderly just like strokes, heart disease or cancer. We might have a reduced life expectancy. But I'd rather live 10 years less than spend the rest of my life social distancing.

Mo Le | 10.02.21 - 7:32 p.m. | #

Heaven preserve us from 'armchair experts'.

An over-70 | 10.02.21 - 7:57 p.m. | #

Richard Evans. "One thing is for sure, whoever is in power would not have done a better job, just a different one"
Hmmm. You sure? Rory Stewart, former minister who had responsibility for UK response to Ebola, has consistently been ahead of the curve in how the UK could/should have responded - but this cabinet refuse to use his expertise.

DG - I think you've given us a sobering abc credible analysis. I take some comfort that take up of vaccines (thus far) is higher than predicted and efficacy seems high.

IslandDweller | 10.02.21 - 8:54 p.m. | #

Running the country is a bit more complicated than organising a music festival in a field.

We are where we are, life is what you make it.

Darren | 10.02.21 - 8:57 p.m. | #

While I’m fine skipping foreign holidays it does make me feel sad for my in-laws who are missing their first grandson grow up.

One brilliant result of immigration is a large number of happy multinational families, many governments don’t seem particularly concerned in allowing these groups to meet up.

Zoom only goes so far. In particular with a one year old!

TomHa | 10.02.21 - 10:12 p.m. | #

As good a reckoning as I've seen. I wonder if Mr Shapps read this post this morning.

dg writes: of course he didn't.

NickW | 10.02.21 - 10:31 p.m. | #

Whilst Brexit hasnt been perfect, we'll survive,get used to it and i think we'll do rather well from it. The virus has kind of thrown us into a worst case scenario test. They'll be a few bumps in the road like most journeys, but we'll get there in the end

I have to say though i think not having the papers rabbit on about this for obvious reasons has been nice. My fear is now its going to try and stir up scaremongering about 'the better vaccine' subconsciously.

People desperate for a holiday and even friends in other countries such as spain that say ' ive booked a holiday in Mexico in may'...I have to say my reaction is 'are you crazy'.

Bruce Wayne | 11.02.21 - 7:05 a.m. | #

Excellent article. Perceptive on so many different levels.

Maxine Morse | 11.02.21 - 7:42 p.m. | #

The WW2 paragraph in particular - info from DGD perhaps. Anyway, excellent perspective.

Gordon | 11.02.21 - 11:20 p.m. | #

Very well written, but too pessimistic IMHO. I don't recall any previous pandemic (and many were of diseases which killed millions more than this one) leaving a permanent "substandard new normal". Maybe you're just a pessimist by nature though.

Platinum Geezer | 15.02.21 - 7:59 p.m. | #

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