please empty your brain below
Seeing as we're all so bad at this, I hope everyone chooses 1.

Ian | 02.07.20 - 8:06 a.m. | #

I view it more as a choice between a hard Brexit and the hardest Brexit. Soft Brexit used to mean options like EEA/EFTA.

Bert Strand | 02.07.20 - 8:36 a.m. | #

Agreed, Bert... and table updated accordingly.

diamond geezer | Homepage | 02.07.20 - 8:39 a.m. | #

I feel that this time, the probability of each of the binary choices is fairly close to 0.5 So whichever outcome happens, only about 1 in 8 of us will have got it exactly right.
But you're right, of course, that when it comes to predicting things, the future is a bit of a challenge. Better stick to the past.

Malcolm | 02.07.20 - 9:11 a.m. | #

You haven’t included just regular ‘Normal’ which is still a possibility.

Geofftech | 02.07.20 - 9:22 a.m. | #

I was going to go for the maximum pessimism of 1, sadly Biden will not be the leader the US needs, just the one with fewer sexual assault allegations against them.

Boris - as Napoleon and Eisenhower might have said, is he a lucky Prime Minister, nope.

One of the justifications for leaving the EU was to pursue opportunities in faster growing Chinese markets - well that's going to go well isn't it.

Still Anon | 02.07.20 - 9:23 a.m. | #

Part of me wonders if Boris' inaction against COVID-19 is just so that he can interrupt the political process to stop a Brexit deal happening.

Part of me wonders if Trump's inaction against COVID-19 is just some high level election rigging to secure a low turnout on a COVID-19-ridden election day.

TheLupineOne | 02.07.20 - 9:26 a.m. | #

I’d like the old normal (mostly) back!

I hope more people will wake up and realise how pointless and now dangerous an exercise the lockdown was by 2021. It may have been worthwhile for the first few weeks to stop hospitals from getting overloaded but that hasn’t been the case for a while.

GreenKitten | 02.07.20 - 9:39 a.m. | #

The lockdown has saved many lives. While it has also done significant damage, no-one can or should deny the first reality.

Malcolm | 02.07.20 - 9:52 a.m. | #

I am just rereading Orwell 1984. Big Brother had a simple method of correcting incorrect predictions. Edit the text to reflect the facts, and shred all previous copies with incorrect predictions.

Scrumpy | 02.07.20 - 10:12 a.m. | #

I hope my predicting is way off, but if we thought the 2010s were tough, as far as the 2020s are concerned, we ain't seen nothing yet!

Cornish Cockney | 02.07.20 - 10:54 a.m. | #

What happens though if Trump holds on to the Presidency, but loses the Senate as well as the House? Things could get very interesting at that point.
As far as the UK is concerned, for as long as we have the present bunch of xenophobic narcissists in charge, we're in trouble, whatever they do.

Philip | 02.07.20 - 12:09 p.m. | #

I really don't think there will be a 'normal' or 'old normal' for me again, the World, my World, has changed and I don't have the power to turn back the clock unfortunately 🤔

Kevin Too | 02.07.20 - 12:54 p.m. | #

If there is one thing I have learned recently, I'm terrible at predicting. So sorry, I have to go for 9 - NO IDEA!

Andrew Bowden | Homepage | 02.07.20 - 4:00 p.m. | #

I voted 2.

• Covid will flare up again during the winter. I'm very afraid it will be bad.
• Trump lost the popular vote last time. I cannot see those who voted against him last time changing their minds and now voting for him. That leaves just a few people to switch sides to make the diffence in the electoral college.
• Boris so bloody stubborn and the EU doesn't have that much to lose. That said, I think there could be some form of fudge that is neither a hard or soft deal. I am not asking DG to put 'fudge' in the list of choices!

Chris | 02.07.20 - 7:18 p.m. | #

• Things won't be as before, but I think that we'll have eased into something more like the old ways. (I'll still be WFH, but I will be able to play football on a Thursday night)
• Hard Brexit looks nailed in.
• Trump will lose, and I'm going to say that the Dems will flip the Senate.

Phil J | Homepage | 02.07.20 - 8:19 p.m. | #

Many of the comments to the previous posts were hopes rather than predictions, so it's fun to expressly call for predictions this time. And depressing! The galling thing is how much more horrendous things will need to get before Trump is sufficiently discredited to be kicked out. At least some sections of the military and his own party are beginning to call him out.

NickW | 02.07.20 - 11:16 p.m. | #

I picked 6 for January 1st, but I’d suggest lockdown is more likely to occur in future as availability bias from the threat of any other pandemic in the next few years makes countries to (over)react at a much earlier stage.

So I would bet money (actually I wouldn’t) on there being another lockdown in my or DG’s lifetime, without any of us yet knowing what it will be for.

William | 25.07.20 - 2:53 p.m. | #

One week before the end of the year we finally (finally) have a Brexit deal.

With lockdown now more severe than in the summer, and Joe Biden on his way to the White House, the correct guess was 4.

Only 4% of us predicted 4.

70% got lockdown wrong.
70% got Brexit wrong.
40% got Trump wrong.

We are very poor at predicting the future.

diamond geezer | Homepage | 24.12.20 - 3:25 p.m. | #











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