please empty your brain below

Is there any sense about whether TfL assume an even spread of passengers along a train? The Victoria line is particularly biased towards heavier loading sat the South of the train, because many of the busiest stations have exits at the south, so there is little reason to move north up the platform.
I suggest that part of the reason for the imbalance between the Hammersmith and City & the Circle line arises because of the break in the latter at Edgware Road.

The hordes coming off the GWR at Paddington crowd out the H&C, while the (much closer) eastbound Circle line platform is deserted.

Crossrail Elizabeth line will take the pressure off here, when it opens.
Oh,how lucky I am living south-east of the river. No busy times here on the tubes. Simple solution-no tubes.
Thank you,DG,for using the word- embiggin. I think that just might be my word of the day.👍🏻😉
Yes Robert. We caught the NB Victoria line yesterday (from Victoria) about 17:30 and twas very noticeable how the platform staff were loudly encouraging people to move up the platform. We didn't take their advice as we had a tight connection at King's Cross. Chances are others thought​ they were in a hurry too. Carriage fully crowded. Would imagine in morning you'd have no choice but to move up the platform.

Isn't this part of the raison d'être for double ended stations on Crossrail? Fully walk through trains will surely help with even loading there too.
Thanks DG - a wonderfully cromulent summary of some very interesting data.
The suburban platforms at Paddington are almost next to the Circle/H+C joint platforms, so there is little point in walking to the other end of Paddington for the eastbound Circle/District platform as the trains terminate at Edgware Road.

As for the rest of the Circle line, there are plenty of North/South & East/West options, there aren't many journeys where the only option is the Circle.
It may be busier at the south end of Victoria, but I normally get on the second or third car up at the front and I can tell you that I normally have to wait for the second or third train before I can board at 8:45am. I'm a bit suspicious that Victoria to Green Park doesn't rate a 6 at that time. Maybe on a day when everything's running perfectly it's a 5, but I only see that once every few weeks.
Excellent article -on the odd occasion that I use the Victoria line in the mornings I shall try the other end of the train!
The Urban dictionary of "embiggen" asserts that it is "A perfectly cromulent word."!
One minor point - using the "right" colours ffor the tube line names makes some of hem invisible against the light blue / grey background.

dg writes: It has long been this blog's policy to inconvenience readers by using the correct colours for tube lines.
As surmised by others, level of crowdedness is not the same as measuring how many trains you have to wait for before you can board. Other factors come into play including what level of overcrowdedness you are prepared to tolerate and the willingness of others to "pass further down the car".

The high figures for the Metropolitan seem to vindicate their policy with mainly longitudinal seating. I know people want more trains/longer trains but those options aren't currently available.
Who would, in their right mind, wish to consider being on a ram-packed, non-air-conditioned tube, deep underground and be standing. Heavenly is nigh-on impossible to find in London, but the depths of hell seem fairly common.
@Lorenzo, this means that Crossrail will be emptier in the middle. Anyway when it's crowded you won't be able to walk through regardless.
Try to get on a westbound train at Liverpool Street in the morning peak and you'll see the data isn't that incorrect. H&C trains are full to bursting, circle trains are busy but nowhere near as full. Met line trains are virtually empty as they've only came from Aldgate.
The data suggests all sorts of unlikely variations between the Hammersmith & City and Circle lines, not just expected differences.

For example, just before 9am Edgware Road to Baker Street is shown as a 6 on the Hammersmith & City but only a 2 on the Circle. That can't be correct, given the common route the two lines have just taken, and are about to take.
Maybe those extra H&C lurkers really want to go to Whitechapel or even Bow Road? After Liverpool Street the seats mostly satisfy these extra dwellers?
Crossrail trains won't necessarily be emptiest in the middle, because about half its users will want to get on at the back and get off at the front, or vice versa, so will typically stroll down the platform (or struggle through the crowds thereon) before the train arrives. (Also some platforms will have interchange access points near the middle).
Thanks to Kirk and Strawbrick I now have my word of the day: cromulent

Plus the interesting etymological (? Sic?) connection between them.
I don't see the difference in loadings as proof the figures are wrong, after all employment levels have risen in East London, yes I could get off at Baker Street and get on the Jubilee Line - but why if I can remain on my air-con H+C line train to West Ham, or change to the DLR at Bow Road/Bow Church?, as a result whats the point of getting a Circle Line train first and changing at Liverpool Street.

If anything its evidence of the Crossrail travel patterns.

Incidentally the definition of very quiet varying from empty to all seats taken is a very broad one.

If your early morning trains have all seats taken, then they are still busy, no data for the night tube?

BTW - you're clearly not a morning person, if I'm reading the data correctly, southbound the Bakerloo has early morning 4s, 5s and a 6 which drop to 1s and 2s after Stonebridge Park.

Again with the Victoria Line southbound how many get off at Seven Sisters, and the District into London where many leave at West Ham.
With the Bakerloo and Victoria the depots are at Stonebridge Park, and Northumberland Park/Seven Sisters respectively - so additional trains are starting from here, but with the District it must be passengers changing for the Jubilee.
We do realise that embiggen and cromulent are from an episode of The Simpsons?

https://frinkiac.com/gif/S07E16/99866/105038.gif
Crossrail trains won't be that much emptier in the middle because that is where the traverse seating will be and a number of people regard longitudinal seating in a train as the work of the devil.
I only visit London as a tourist, I try never to travel before 09:30 weekdays - or after 17:00.
The categories (with no distinction between all seats taken and completely empty) show how irrelevant seating (in any orientation) is becoming in London's public transport - at least for shorter journeys.
Yes - the shouters were out in force last Friday rush hour at Piccadilly Circus. We had already gone to the front end of the platform with suitcase and bags and I have to say selfishly I didn't want that to happen given the extra space the case would take - and the inconvenience it would cause to others (the detour took ages and the bus option would have been quicker!).

We were enduring a Cat 6 journey due to the numerous line closures that evening and in our case necessitated our detour from Earl's Court (Edgeware Road train diverted via South Ken, etc.) en route to Paddington.

However, the primary reason I am writing is the lack of more important announcements. At Southfields, where we alighted, it only said, "Check destination on train" - not "the line through High St. Ken. is closed...". Thankfully another passenger told us to get on the first train, as he knew of the problems.

And, at Paddington, late on a Sunday evening, there was no announcement to change at High St. Ken. And, when we got there, the announcement said, "Look at the Board above ?", but there was no Board, so one intrepid passenger went down the platform 2/3 stairs to establish that there were passengers on the train by platform 4! Most helpful to the rest of us.
Re Bakerloo - there are only three southbound trains between 06:00 and 07:00 north of Stonebridge Park (there is also a 35 minute gap between the first and second train), then x12 minutes, from Stonebridge Park there are nine trains between 06:00 and 07:00 then every 3-4 minutes, apart from 9-10 minute gaps for Overground trains into Euston.

On the Victoria Line there is a train every 5 minutes from Seven Sisters then the 2 minute frequency from 06:00, go back one stop to Blackhorse Road there is a fifteen minute gap between first and second trains, then 11 minutes between the second and third, then 7-8 minutes from 05:50, then 5-6 minutes from 06:30, the 2 minute frequency doesn't start until 06:50.

So the loading patterns fit, basically the early morning service is too infrequent on the outer sections.
There are five southbound trains between 06:00 and 07:00 north of Stonebridge Park, it's just that two of them are Overground trains.
For the record, from Wembley Central (the stop before Stonebridge Park), the service consists of: -

05:35 Euston
05:47 E&C
06:05 Euston
06:22 E&C
06:35 Euston
06:43 E&C
06:55 E&C
07:05 Euston
07:18 E&C
07:25 Euston


then the x12 minute headway on the Bakerloo and x20 on the Overground, if you look at the data, the figure between Wembley Central and Stonebridge Park is 5 between 07:00-07:15, 6 between 07:15-07:30 then drops to 3 between 07:30-07:45.

Considering its location in zones 3 and 4, this is probably the poorest morning peak hour service on the tube, for example this is the service from Mill Hill East: -

05:25
05:44
05:59
06:12
06:24
06:36
06:48
07:00
07:12
07:24


Yep, until 07:25 Wembley Central has the same number of trains departing for Central London in the morning peak as the Mill Hill East branch, is it really that surprising that there is overcrowding?
I don't understand how Canada Water to Canary Wharf doesn't not hit a 6, but quite a bit of the westbound service around that area does.
@ Still Anon - I am not up to date with current commuting patterns (thank goodness) but I regularly caught trains prior to 0700 at Blackhorse Rd. Trains were busy on arrival and were packed by the time you got to Seven Sisters. One of the issues is the pattern of arrivals on National Rail services as they create huge surges of demand. Even a 1 or 2 min delay on getting to a station can mean a very different travelling experience depending on whether you get engulfed by people interchanging from NR. Even with the mega whizzy Vic Line 34 tph there is no benefit north of Seven Sisters prior to 0700 for s/b passengers. All driven by the position of the depot and the way trains feed into service. It's not as parlous as your analysis at Wembley Central which shows an extremely poor level of service for such a populous area with very busy bus feeder services.

On a general observation there are many more people making short trips between stations at the north end of the Victoria Line. I doubt the numbers are significant in the context of total demand on the line but they are much higher than, say, 10 or 15 years ago. I assume some of this is the greater use of suburban rail services that link with the Vic Line plus changes in employment patterns.

On a more general note I tend to agree with previous comments that the TfL categories for overcrowding don't feel right. I am amazed that Stockwell n/b never exceeds a "3" given the huge numbers boarding at Brixton and also interchanging from the Northern never mind the locals wanting to travel. It's not exactly a little village outside the station.
Regarding the Bakerloo morning peak: No higher than a 4? Not in my personal experience, where I regularly had to wait on the platform with many others at Marylebone as a train pulled out for Oxford Circus, completely rammed over most of it's length.
PC - Re Stockwell, if I'm already on a northbound Northern Line train, why change to the Victoria Line, only Pimlico is unique, Victoria if I work near there or catching a mainline train, I would only use Green Park if I was changing trains, and you can stay on the Northern and change to the Jubilee and Piccadilly elsewhere.

This leaves Oxford Circus - a short walk/tube journey from TCR, if I'm on a Bank train I can change at Kennington and more than likely get an empty train and a choice of seat, then Warren Street/Euston/Kings Cross are common to both, again all within walking distance of each other.

Conversely someone on the Victoria will change at Stockwell for the Bank branch as it has a better spread of stations in the City.

Any chance of someone producing those node flows in diagram form?
The Stockwell data looks right to me - I commute from Brixton and it doesn't get really busy until Victoria, as the numbers suggest, and is never as bad as the Northern Line at its worst (a journey I used to do)
I'm struggling to envisage those numbers in terms of actual experience.

When I used to commute by Piccadilly line, you'd have to physically shove to get on an eastbound train through the centre in the morning - but that's apparently not even very busy, let alone exceptionally busy. Are people on Metropolitan line trains standing on each other's heads?










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