please empty your brain below
South London has always been treated as being second class by London Transport. The Victoria Line was always going to go all the way to Walthamstow (Zone 3) in tunnel, but Brixton (Zone 2) was always a struggle. I looked in the London Transport archives at projected passenger usage south of Brixton, the figures were absurdly low, with a station slap-bang in the middle of Streatham estimated to generate 1/3 the number of passengers as Brixton IIRC.
I could write masses on why not but basically:
- Commuters on the Hayes line tend to work in the city near Cannon Street. What is the point of a plan that takes away the direct route for a lot of people ?
- From the first point it is not simply just a case of having spare capacity on the Bakerloo line. How are they going to get to the city? On the Northern line using the spare capacity on that ?
- People simply don't grasp the difference in capacity between a standard above-ground train and a little tube train. It is about 3 to 1. Using tube trains on the Hayes line would literally create problems down the line and that spare capacity would be completely inadequate for the demands put upon it.
- There is no point in considering the scheme as if it were to be implemented today. Such a scheme would probably take at least ten years to come to fruition. We would then have 12-car trains on the Hayes line and little high-density "Evo-stock" trains on the Bakerloo. If the latter it would be a very uncomfortable for a long commutes from places like West Wickham and Hayes. Also, at today's rate of increased public transport use the spare capacity on the Bakerloo would probably no longer exist.
Whatever Max thinks about not having much traffic potential the reality is that this is the only line for a very large catchment area that serves Cannon Street station and the trains are currently very crowded indeed in the rush hour. Nowadays it also has a healthy off-peak level of traffic.
By tube frequencies, probably every 10 mins would do anyway, which means they could slot in between the 6tph during the peak. Also, this would solve the problem in which I often find myself at Ladywell with a Z2+ travelcard, and a 30 minute wait.
The problem is TFL have other priorities. The Costs for this are high but the benefits lower compared to other schemes. With London's growing population other schemes will always win out.
TFL is foccussed on two things only. Getting the money to upgrade the rest of the deep tube network (plus possible separation of the Northern line) and the building of crossrail 2.
Future tubes under London are pretty much going to be mainline gauge from now on as they carry so many more people. TFL wants £12 billion plus for Crossrail 2 with construction to start in the 2020's just after they finish the tube upgrade programme. Of course when that is done they will just want to start on crossrail 3.
So no real prospect of £3 or £4 billion projects I'm afraid. Only those that cost £1 billion or less. Preferably less, so maybe some Tramlink schemes and Overground improvements.
Wouldn't it be the cheapest option just to reopen them?
Greg - I agree and do wonder why there have been not been more campaigns to re-open those 2 stations.
Rational Plan - It's not just schemes over a billion pounds that are hard to find money for but any scheme at all not funded by developer money - just look at the delay in getting Tramlink to Crystal Palace or the GOBLIN electrified. But I agree with your main point that, rightly or wrongly, it is only huge schemes that are seen to be worth funding.
Evidence please. If you disagree with my calculation, maybe you could supply one for yourself. I base my numbers on passenger figures supplied by Network Rail and TfL. Rather than your own personal opinions (Max is wrong, I am right) lets see some proper numerical arguments for a change.
Re-opening the Camberwell and Walworth stations on the Thameslink route would be a no-brainer, if FCC took any interest in that route.
I think you'll find Peckhham's route to the West End at Victoria is quite direct, with only one intermediate stop. However, it's less frequent than it was, as the stopping service via Clapham High Street and Battersea Park has been hijacked to go to Clapham Junction.
Peckham's route to the City is not as good.
But, even though TFL just wants Crossrail 2, it needs to offer some baubles in the mean time. We are talking about 2030 before it opens.
I imagine a few hundred million projects will be programmed in.
Could I register another vote for 'Not Hayes'. I quite liked the suggestion on londonreconnections about taking over the Dartford via Bexleyheath Branch and extending to Bluewater, but appreciate this would also mean replacing big trains with little ones. Guessing you are correct and it's all academic really as nothing is likely to happen.
I've ordered a copy of The Blind Men and the Elephant mentioned on londonreconnections to read to my pesky children. Sounds fascinating. Why did I not know about this before?
Keep up the good work, it is much appreciated. Time for me to do some work now, better late than never.
A Bakerloo line train has 268 seats. Any "Evo" train will undoubtably have fewer.According to this site a 12-car class 465 has 1032 seats and it gives a total passenger carrying capacity of 1410 which I reckon is very conservative.
The Hayes line currently has 6 tph and from personal experience and other comments on the web it is very full in peak hours - which makes you wonder how busy it would be if there sufficient capacity.
I think it is reasonable to assume that the Bakerloo will have a maximum of 24tph because it will presumably still go north if of Queens Park and have to interface to a non-automatic railway.
Based on the presumption that each 12-car train will be packed to capacity then each Bakerloo line train will have to accommodate at least an extra 350 passengers per train. Of course if the extension has other new underground stations between Ladywell and London Bridge the figure will probably substantially increase. There will still need to be space available at Waterloo to cater for increased traffic expected to transfer from SWT between now and when it would open.
I cannot get any figures for where people travel to from the Hayes line but personal experience suggests that this is predominately the city in the peak hours with people either taking a Cannon Street train or alighting at London Bridge and walking. I would love these figures to be available because it I think it would clinch the argument - or alternatively show me up to be wrong.
Don't forget a large portion of at least an extra 350 people per Bakerloo train (i.e. every 2½ minutes) will want to travel to Charing Cross, London Bridge, or Cannon Street. In the case of the latter two there needs to be capacity on other lines for them to do this.
So basically I just do not believe that in ten or so years time it will be humanly (or at least humanely) possible to accommodate an extra 350 passengers per Bakerloo train on top of what the demand will then be.
Loads of numerical arguments for those whose like evidence and not just opinions.
With the lack of access to rail, the transport system doesn't cope. Around 100,000 people live in that "transport hole" in Southwark. The area is heavily dependent on buses (no Barclays bikes here). In some parts, it is just one bus route. Try squeezing or elbowing your way onto a 343 bus in the Burgess Park area during the morning rush hour. It's not recommended for the faint-hearted.
As I have long advocated, restoring Waterloo - City buses (currently 4, 26, 76, 172) to the route the 76, 149, and 168A used to take until c1980 via Blackfriars or Southwark bridges instead of the big dogleg via Waterloo Bridge would be a very simple improvement. TfL have not explained why this can't be done, other than "we know best"
After that, whether it continues South to Denmark Hill then Herne Hill or East Dulwich, or heading off East to Peckham and New Cross it would serve Southwark well all hours.
Simply heading through Burgess Park towards New Cross, it would just be peak time commuter route.
Only problem is Lewisham shopping centre will be a stop on the DLR extension and NOT the Bakerloo extension to Catford.
Lewisham like Westfields just different.
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